NL Division Series Game 4: Dodgers vs. Padres Best Bets

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October 15, 2022

Longtime NL West rivals, the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres, are set to face off for Game 4 of the NLDS tonight from Petco Park.

Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Los Angeles Dodgers (-124) vs. San Diego Padres (+106) Total: 7.5 (O-106, U-114)

Something that not a lot of people saw coming was the San Diego Padres having the 111-win Los Angeles Dodgers on the brink of elimination after recording a 2-1 victory last night. The Dodgers were 22 games ahead of the Padres in the regular season standings, but the Friars are simply getting hot at the right time of year and doing so against the top competition in the National League. 

Timely hitting and quality starting pitching helped San Diego upset the New York Mets in the wild-card round, and that’s continued in the NLDS against the powerhouse Dodgers. One has to wonder how teams will react moving forward to the first-round bye, as it hasn’t had many benefits despite being a small sample size.

Momentum in baseball is only as good as your next day’s starting pitcher, which tonight is  Tyler Anderson of the Dodgers facing off with Joe Musgrove of the Padres. Anderson finished the regular season with a 15-5 record, 2.57 ERA, and 138 strikeouts. The Padres righty tallied a 10-7 record, along with a 2.93 ERA and 184 strikeouts. 

Regarding postseason experience, Musgrove was dominant in the wild-card round clincher against the Mets, pitching seven innings and allowing just one hit while striking out five. This was the first playoff start for Musgrove, but his eighth postseason appearance which has seen him tally a 3.95 ERA. Looking at Anderson, the left-hander has two postseason appearances, with his last one being a start for the Colorado Rockies in 2018. The lefty has a 3.86 ERA in those matchups. 

Anderson was dominant in four starts against the Padres this season with a 1.88 ERA, while Musgrove was solid in three with a 3.63 ERA. With the Dodgers on the brink, it’s hard not to like the price you’re getting them at on the moneyline tonight at -124. 

Best Bet: Dodgers moneyline (-124)

Through three games in this series, the first two games saw a total of eight runs scored, while last night saw just three. Game 4 has pitching duel written all over it, especially when you consider the success both starters have had against the opposition.

Despite the first two matchups going over the total, the under is something to keep an eye on again tonight, as we witnessed in Game 3. Tonight’s matchup has a chess matchup feel to it, so expect good starting pitching and continued success with the bullpens—side with the under 7.5 at -114. 

Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-114) 

It hasn’t exactly been a season to remember for veteran Dodgers third basemen, Justin Turner. In saying that, he’s been a solid playoff contributor over the years for this historic franchise. Turner will be treated to a matchup that he’s thoroughly enjoyed tonight. When facing off against Musgrove this season, the third baseman had 14 at-bats and tallied three home runs and five RBI. In addition, he hit six home runs against the Padres during their season series, leading us to target Turner to homer tonight at a very nice value price of +560. 

Best Prop: Justin Turner to Hit a Home Run (+560)

Thumbnail photo via Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

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