NLCS Game 3: Padres vs. Phillies Best Bets

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October 21, 2022

The number six seed Philadelphia Phillies are set to host the number five seed San Diego Padres for Game 3 of the NLCS from Citizens Bank Park.

All Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

San Diego Padres (-118) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (+100) Total: 7.5 (O -105, U -115)

Through two games of the NLCS, the series is tied at one, and both teams have made separate statements. This was always expected to be an extremely tight series, and that’s held through two games, which makes sense when you consider that these two were the last to qualify for the postseason in the National League. What’s interesting about Game 3 is that although the Phillies are headed home for this matchup, they currently sit as slight underdogs.

Pitching is something that both teams have, and likely why the Padres are slight favorites in this matchup. The visiting Friars are expected to send right-hander Joe Musgrove to the bump, while the Phillies should counter with left-hander Ranger Suarez. During the regular season, Musgrove posted a 10-7 record with a 2.93 ERA and 184 strikeouts, while Suarez was 10-7 with a 3.65 ERA and 129 punchouts.

The Padres righty has made two playoff starts this year, pitching 13 innings while allowing just two earned runs and striking out 13 batters. Suarez has made one start, pitching just three and 1/3 innings with one earned run and five strikeouts. What’s clear is that Musgrove has a little bit of a longer leash but also boasts more postseason experience. Musgrove faced the Phillies once this year, and it didn’t go well, posting a 9.00 ERA, while Suarez took on the Padres once, pitching seven and 1/3 innings while allowing two earned runs and striking out three batters. 

Even with those two small sample sizes, Suarez struggled at home, posting an ERA almost 1.25 runs higher there, while Musgrove didn’t have much of a discrepancy between his home and road splits. This is essentially a pick ’em tonight, but there’s more to trust with what the Padres are offering, so targeting them on the moneyline has some value at -118.

Best Bet: Padres moneyline (-118) 

The first two games of this series couldn’t have been more different, with a pitching duel in Game 1 and the teams combining for double-digit runs in Game 2. Game 3 has two pitchers with their fair share of ups and downs, which could make you lean towards the over at 7.5. Even though both starters can put together quality outings, look towards the over 7.5 and for the teams to combine for more than ten runs again. 

Best Bet: Over 7.5 (-105)

There’s a lot to like about how Manny Machado has played through the first two rounds of the MLB playoffs, and he’s carried that over into the NLCS against the Phillies. The Padres’ third baseman has a 1.014 OPS in 36 at-bats this postseason, along with three home runs and six RBI. In addition, he had better power numbers on the road. Machado has power from both sides of the plate but hit 12 home runs in 162 at-bats against left-handers. There’s a lot of value in his price to homer tonight, listed at +340. 

Best Prop: Manny Machado to Hit a Home Run (+340)

Thumbnail photo via Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports

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