How Tom Brady’s Downfall With Bucs Presents Golden Betting Opportunity
Is the NFC South suddenly wide open?
The Buccaneers are taking on water, and even Tom Brady might have a hard time steering this ship to safety.
Yet, in the middle of every difficulty lies opportunity — and that’s especially true on the betting market amid Tampa Bay’s struggles.
The Bucs suffered their third straight defeat Thursday night, a 27-22 home loss to the Baltimore Ravens that dropped Tampa Bay’s record to 3-5. Not only does it mark Brady’s first three-game losing streak in two decades, it also opens the door for another team to lead the NFC South after eight weeks of the 2022 regular season.
Here are the NFC South standings following Tampa Bay’s Week 8 loss (and before the Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints play Sunday):
Falcons 3-4
Buccaneers 3-5
Panthers 2-5
Saints 2-5
The Falcons host the Panthers this week, and as NFL analytics guru Warren Sharp noted Thursday night on Twitter, the winner of that Sunday matchup will lead the division — not the Bucs. A victory for the Falcons would put Atlanta at 4-4, a full game ahead of Tampa Bay with nine contests remaining on each team’s schedule.
That said, here were the division winner odds at DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday afternoon:
Buccaneers -150
Falcons +225
Saints +700
Panthers +1500
One could argue this is a good time to buy low on the Buccaneers, who opened the season with -250 odds to win the division. That, of course, depends on your confidence in Brady and company, who host the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams in Week 9 before traveling to Munich, Germany, in Week 10 for an intraconference clash with the upstart Seattle Seahawks. You might be able to snag more favorable odds by waiting a week.
Going a step further, the Buccaneers before the season had +700 odds to win the Super Bowl. Now, Tampa Bay has +2000 odds — trailing the Buffalo Bills (+250), Philadelphia Eagles (+500), Kansas City Chiefs (+700), San Francisco 49ers (+1500), Ravens (+1600), Minnesota Vikings (+1600) and Dallas Cowboys (+1800). Again, decent buy-low chance.
But let’s say you believe the Buccaneers’ tailspin is for real, with no end in sight. There’s value to be had there, as well, because the odds — particularly in the divisional market — still don’t quite reflect a team in total disarray. Which really is an indictment on the weak competition for the NFC South throne, but nevertheless creates enticing options within a murky playoff picture that could go in any number of directions.
The difficulty in zigging while Bucs backers zag, of course, is identifying which team will usurp Tampa Bay. The odds suggest it could be the Falcons, who were +3500 to win the division before Week 1. Atlanta has the easiest remaining schedule in the entire NFL, according to Sharp.
The Panthers might look like a compelling long shot at first glance, but their quarterback play and overall talent is troubling, especially in wake of trading All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers.
The Saints, who were +310 before the season to win the NFC South, actually look like the sneaky-good bet here. New Orleans remains very much in contention, despite its poor record, and could receive a jolt when a few key players return. The offense has been good. It’s on the defense to finally perform at a level that matches its personnel.
The moral of the story? The Bucs once looked like a lock to coast to an NFC South crown. Now? Not so much. And that stunning reality makes for a suddenly intriguing betting market as sportsbooks are forced to adjust to Tampa Bay’s sinking journey.
