UEFA Champions League Week 5 Best Bets

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October 25, 2022

Thanks to the World Cup, there is no time to relax in this year’s grueling club soccer schedule. From having Tuesday Matches in domestic leagues to accelerating the Champions League group stages, clubs have had to “figure it out” a lot quicker, which has inevitably been arduous.

It’s already Match Day 5 of the group stages, and there have been plenty of upsets. Some of Europe’s elite clubs, such as Juventus, Barcelona, and Atletico Madrid, are on the verge of being eliminated, while “smaller” clubs, such as Club Brugge, are topping their group. It has been close across the board, which is unusual for this stage of the competition.

However, despite the parity among the groups, there is always value to be found when it comes to Sports Betting, and this year’s Champions League has been surprisingly predictable. Here are my best bets for Week 5.

Manchester City Moneyline + Both Teams to Score (+170)

When Erling Haaland announced his move to Manchester City, the world knew what was coming, goals. He has not disappointed, scoring five goals in just three Champions League games. This week he travels to face his old team in Borussia Dortmund, in front of the “Yellow Wall.”

Pep Guardiola’s side is unbeaten after four Champions League games and leads Group E. In Manchester City’s last Champions League game, they were held to a scoreless draw against Copenhagen. I expect a bounce back this time, as four out of the previous five times City has been held scoreless in the Champions League, they scored at least three goals in their next game. The Cityzens will look to secure the first spot in the group with an emphatic victory in Germany.

We will also need both teams to score for our prop to hit. I am convinced Dortmund will show up to the fight, as they have scored in every home game this season. Not only that, but in the all-time head-to-head between these two teams, both have scored in 80% of the games. Take the Manchester City moneyline and both teams to score at +170, and enjoy the showdown!

RB Salzburg Double Chance (+104)

Call me crazy, but I’m betting against Chelsea this week. Take RB Salzburg’s double chance at +104 (RB Salzburg to win or draw).

Matthias Jaissle’s side is still unbeaten in this season’s Champions League and has lost only one game at home since 2020 in all competitions. Last season, in the Round of 16, they played an incredible 1-1 draw against Bayern Munich in front of their home fans, so it’s safe to say Red Bull Arena is a fortress.

I’m expecting a hard-fought battle in Austria, resulting in Salzburg stealing at least a point. RB Salzburg plays their last game of the group stage away against AC Milan and will fight with everything they have to leave qualification in their own hands. Chelsea has struggled offensively as of late, and both teams will be playing “not to lose,” resulting in a boring game, which suits RB perfectly.

RB Salzburg will secure at least a point at home. At a tasty +104, I’m taking that every chance I get.

AC Milan Team Total Over 1.5 (-110)

In the other Group E matchup, both sides go into Tuesday knowing that a win is needed for any chance of qualifying. AC Milan hasn’t been able to translate their domestic success to the Champions League, failing to score in their last two games. They now sit in third place, with a minus-three goal differential, and need to score goals on top of getting a win to have any hope. I think they will do precisely that.

Milan can put up goals, as they have scored at least three goals in five matches this season, including four this past weekend. These two sides have played each other three times, and Milan has scored three in each game. Historically speaking, Milan should run riot, but with their recent track record, I feel safer backing their team total as the team knows it’s now or never.

Take AC Milan to score at least two goals at -110

Club Brugge Draw No Bet (+142)

It would be fair to say no one expected Group B to look the way it does after four games into the competition. Club Brugge tops the group with ten points and has secured a spot in the Round of 16. They have their sights set on securing the top spot in the group, at home, against their biggest competitor in the group, FC Porto. The last time these two teams played, Brugge won 4-0.

In the competition, Club Brugge is the only team yet to concede after four matches. The Belgian side has only lost at home once this season.

Meanwhile, FC Porto could secure their spot in the last 16 of the Champions League this week, but it is not entirely in their hands. The Portuguese champions have to beat Club Brugge and hope Atletico Madrid drops points against Bayer Leverkusen if they are to seal their spot in the next round.

With Club Brugge having more control of their fate, I’m backing them to take full advantage. Take Club Brugge draw no bet (+142) and enjoy the safety net of having the push if there is a tie.

Goalscoring Parlay (+867)

Lastly, I’ll leave you with a spicy goalscoring parlay. Take Erling Haaland, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, and Sadio Mane to all get at least one goal in their games (+867).

Erling Haaland (-150):

  • Playing in Dortmund for the first time since the transfer
  • He scored against Dortmund last time out
  • He scored 86 goals in all competitions for Dortmund
  • 22 goals in 14 matches this season

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (+100):

  • Playing Rangers at home with a chance to take a commanding lead in Group A
  • Seven goals in 15 matches this season, leading Napoli
  • Nicknamed “Kvaradona” in Naples after the late Diego Maradona due to stellar performances

Sadio Mane (+190):

  • Playing against Barcelona with a chance to eliminate them
  • He rested last weekend and is expected to be explosive with Leroy Sane out
  • Nine goals in 16 matches this season

Feel free to take these anytime goalscorers as single bets, as you can still get great value if two of three hits. These three players are my best picks to bag a goal this week, and parlaying them gets you +867 odds.

Thumbnail photo via USA TODAY Sports Images

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