NFL Picks: Week 11 Best-Bet Parlay All Over (And Under) Totals
It's all totals for us in Week 11
Dear Buffalo Bills,
Thanks for nothing.
The NESNBets NFL best-bet parlay came so close to cashing for a second week in a row in Week 10. After the Dolphins-Browns game blew past its total, and the Saints-Steelers contest was a low-scoring slopfest, we just needed the Bills to cover an extremely manageable number, -3.5, at home against the Vikings.
The Bills had a 10-point advantage with less than five minutes to play before Minnesota cut into the lead. The Vikings got within four and were driving to take control. A miraculous goal-line stand by Buffalo with less than a minute should have ended it with a Bills cover — and then Josh Allen fumbled in his end zone, and the rest is history.
As we’ve said multiple times this season, though, that’s the precarious nature of betting parlays.
The good news? It’s a new week, and we’re back with the Week 11 best-bet parlay.
Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts UNDER 45.5
Just looking at the stats and trends and what each team does well (or doesn’t do well), it seems like there will be a lot of run plays in this game. That means the clock should keep moving and obviously limit the opportunities for points. The Eagles, by all metrics, have one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL. They’ll probably try to get back to that after suffering their first loss of the season last week. The Colts’ rushing attack, meanwhile, has been in a major rut this season. But they do still have Jonathan Taylor, and perhaps more importantly, Philly’s run defense is really bad, ranking 28th by DVOA. The Colts, whose head coach is a former offensive lineman, should look to establish themselves on the ground here. It’s not like they have a choice, either. For as bad as the Eagles’ run defense is, the pass defense is elite, anchored by a good pass rush. So if the Colts can’t run it, they probably won’t be able to throw it, either, which means a low score.
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons OVER 49.5
At the risk of oversimplifying, the Bears and Falcons have played a combined 20 games this season, and of those 20 games, 50 points have been scored in 10 of them. It’s a 50-50 shot in that regard, but the chances of another shootout seem high. That’s in large part because neither defense is very good. Atlanta is 31st in yards per play allowed, and the Bears are 22nd. Only two teams are allowing more big plays (10-plus-yard runs, 20-plus-yard passes) per game than Atlanta, a statistic in which the Bears rank 23rd in the NFL. And these teams certainly have big-play capability. In fact, the Bears still lead the league in big plays per game, and the Falcons are tied for 12th. Pace and game script are something to consider here, with both teams moving slow and preferring to move the ball on the ground rather than through the air. Ultimately, though, the defensive problems for each team open this thing up for the offenses, even if that means 40- or 50-yard runs. This game will be sneaky entertaining, too.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 40.5
We’re just going totals this week, finishing the card with another Steelers under. These teams are a combined 6-11-1 to the under so far this season, and just one of Pittsburgh’s last five games saw a combined score of more than 40 points, and that was a 38-3 loss in Buffalo that just barely squeaked over that barrier. The Bengals’ offense, on the other hand, has had to rely heavily on the run game since Ja’Marr Chase went down. The Cincinnati rushing attack, to its credit, has been very good over that span. However, the Steelers’ run defense is one of the best in the league. We saw that in Week 1 when Pittsburgh limited Cincinnati running backs to 3 yards per carry. In that same game, they pinned their ears back defensively, sacking Joe Burrow seven times, picking him off four times and recovering a fumble of his for good measure. The Bengals still almost won that game thanks to a sensational game from Chase. Without Chase — and with the Steelers defense as healthy as it has been since Week 1 — this feels like a rock fight in chilly, breezy Pittsburgh.
Payout: 1 unit to win 5.96 units
To date: Down 0.13 units
