Packers-Eagles DFS Showdown: Slate Strategy Analysis

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November 27, 2022

Free up-to-date projections and optimization tools for all NFL DFS slates are available at DailyRoto.com. For bookmarking purposes, optimal probability simulations and expected ownership projections will be available on a continuous link here.MULTIPLIER TARGETS:

Jalen Hurts has the highest optimal probability on this showdown slate between the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football. We’ve seen how high Hurts’ ceiling can reach given his dual-threat upside, but that hasn’t been fully present as of late because he didn’t need it to be, given how the Eagles were winning games. He reminded us last week when we went for 86 yards and a score off 16 rushes. Hurts is an obvious target at the multiplier spot on any slate, and it’s no different here.

AJ Brown on Friday told reporters that he was extremely sick throughout the week, so we’re not overly confident in his body tonight. Additionally, DeVonta Smith has out-targeted Brown 17-11 over the past two weeks. While Brown’s red zone upside is extremely desirable, his price is too close to Hurts, where it would be much safer to back the quarterback. We like what we’ve seen from DeVonta as of late and view him as a strong value play on this slate at the multiplier spot.

Aaron Jones is the Packers’ most dynamic weapon and key to success, as the Eagles are much more vulnerable against the run than the pass. Establishing the ground game early and often makes sense for Matt LeFleur until the Eagles show they can stop it, which they inevitably did against Jonathan Taylor last week. If you look for the Packers to win this game, it would almost certainly come on the backs of a monstrous game from Aaron Jones. If not, the Eagles have much bigger problems. 

How can we not throw in a guy who has five touchdowns over the past two games into the multiplier mix? To say the least, Christian Watson has been sensational from a fantasy standpoint and earned Aaron Rodgers’s trust in the red zone. As he only had eight receptions over the past two weeks, we know that type of production is not sustainable, especially against such a strong pass defense. We view Allen Lazard as a much more viable option as he has two double-digit target games over his last three, but we’re not incredibly bullish on either option at the multiplier.

FLEX OPTIONS:

Aaron Rodgers is seeing some favorable ownership leverage, but we’re not too high on his matchup against one of the league’s best pass defenses. The garbage time value could be there, but there is much better value on the board around his pricing.

We like this to be a Miles Sanders game, as the Packers don’t defend the run that well, and the Eagles should be looking to dominate the ground game early tonight. In games where he’s garnered at least 17 carries, he’s totaled over 70 yards in each of them, putting him in a strong spot to climb up the optimal board. 

AJ Dillon has the highest amount of negative ownership leverage in our projections, so we’re going to stay away despite the affordability, as he hasn’t found the end zone since Week 1, which we’re reliant on in these showdown slates.

We’re going to go ahead and group Quez Watkins, Boston Scott, and Kenneth Gainwell, given their price range. Scott and Gainwell are two fades for us, as they’ve only combined for six carries over the past two weeks, while each recorded under a 20% snap share last week. Watkins is a much stronger play for us as he’ll see a ton of field time, and few people in the sport can run with him on a deep ball.

Look to favor Randall Cobb over Robert Tonyan, as Cobb will be primarily matched up against the worst link in the Eagles’ secondary and has recorded at least six receptions in two of his last three games. 

Jack Stoll and Zach Pascal look to be the two strongest cheap plays on this slate, and both should have rather prominent roles in this offense. We’ll favor Pascal here compared to the TE1 juice attached to Stoll, as Green Bay allows the fewest yards per game to opposing tight ends. Stoll only saw one target off of 81% of the snaps last week and is much better served as a blocker. 

If we’re going to tout someone that is minimally priced, we’re looking at Tyree Jackson. Clearly, last week’s tight end formula did not work, but Jackson is an incredible athlete in a 6’7” frame who the organization is very high on and committed a lot to develop from a college QB. If there is a spot where they should give him a chance, it’s here. 

Thumbnail photo via Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

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