Football Props: Players To Target In NFL Week 17, College Bowls
Is Tom Brady primed to carve up Carolina?
It’s NFL Week 17 and college football bowl season. Does it get any better than that?
Here are some players to target in the prop market as we bring in the new year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) vs. Carolina Panthers — Bucs quarterback Tom Brady
Brady and the Bucs are just a small home favorite in Week 17, and as disrespectful as you may think it is, technically this means bookmakers are saying it would be a coinflip on a neutral site against their NFC South rival. The total of 40.5 isn’t high, but Tampa has relied on its future Hall of Fame quarterback throughout the season, no matter the game script. The Bucs’ passing play percentage of almost 67% ranks the highest in the NFL and Brady leads all quarterbacks in attempts and completions and ranks fourth in passing yards. Facing a Carolina defense that ranks bottom-10 in pass DVOA, Brady should be reliable when it comes to cashing passing prop overs this weekend. His attempts and completions have not been posted yet, but the over on his yardage prop set at 277.5 is a safe play.
Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5) vs. Denver Broncos — Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce
The Broncos are allowing the most targets (8.1), fourth-most catches (5.7), and fourth-most yards (62.4) against tight ends this season. When the two teams met in Week 14, Kelce saw nine targets and finished with four catches for 71 yards. His receiving yards prop is set at 72.5, which means if he had one more catch in that prior game, this over would have cashed. The ninth-year pro should be able to do so this time around with the same volume, leading the team in targets by a wide margin (almost 40) and in yards by 380. Kelce’s 1,257 receiving yards ranks eighth overall in the NFL but leads the way among tight ends by 418 yards. In a game where the Chiefs are expected to build a big lead as a 12.5-point favorite, Patrick Mahomes can lean on some quick short passes to his favorite target to move the chains at home. For plus money you can grab the over on his receptions of 6.5 (+120), or at -120 take the over on his receiving yards of 72.5.
Michigan (-7.5) vs. TCU — Wolverines running back Donovan Edwards
Michigan is more than a touchdown favorite against TCU, but a lot of people believe the Wolverines should be getting even more respect against what some consider a Cinderella story in the Horned Frogs. Either way, the game script tells us Michigan will build a lead and lean on the run to bleed out the clock. Luckily, the Wolverines have a stud back in Edwards who has impressed in his next-man-up role after Heisman Trophy candidate Blake Corum suffered a meniscus injury back on Nov.19 against Illinois. Edwards has been much more than just a capable backup running back. He has been elite in his role, averaging 7.5 yards a carry this season and is coming off 185 and 216 rushing yards in his last two games. The sophomore is averaging almost 18 attempts in his last five games, excluding the Nebraska game where he received only two carries and Corum carried the load. His rushing yards prop is set at 126.5, which is high. But for the volume he is likely to see, the over should still cash.
Georgia -6.5 vs. Ohio State — Buckeyes wide receiver Emeka Egbuka
Egbuka was ranked the No. 1 receiver in the 2021 prospect class for a reason. While his teammate Marvin Harrison Jr. has deservedly received national attention this season, Egbuka has been right there with him, just 118 yards short of the Buckeyes lead wideout’s team lead. The second-year WR is averaging about 87 yards per game this season and had 70 or more receiving yards in nine of 12 games this season. Egbuka posted five 100-plus yard receiving games this season. With Georgia’s main focus likely on Harrison Jr, Egbuka should easily get over his receiving prop of 69.5.
