The Patriots kick off Week 13 hosting their division rival Buffalo Bills at Gillette Stadium on Thursday night.
Respected money has come in on New England, and all eyes will be on this one as it has big playoff implications for Bill Belichick’s squad that is currently on the outside looking in. Taking a look at the rest of the slate, there are some good teaser spots to keep in mind. Last week, I gave out three teaser legs (Miami Dolphins, San Francisco 49ers, Tennessee Titans) at +160, and we cashed. Let’s try again this week.
If you pair two teams in a 6-point teaser at DraftKings Sportsbook, you get a line of -120 (risk $120 to win $100). If you want plus money, you can pair three teams in a 6-point teaser for a payout of +160 (risking $100 wins you $160). Shopping around for the best number is important here — some sportsbooks will offer two-team 6-point teasers juiced at -140, while others offer -110 or -120.
Baltimore Ravens -8 to -2 vs. Denver Broncos
Here we are getting through those two key numbers of seven and three. While the Ravens are coming off an upset loss against the Jacksonville Jaguars this past week, they should bounce back easily against one of the worst offenses in football. Denver certainly has underachieved what many thought would be a great season with Russell Wilson under center. They have the lowest red-zone scoring percentage (37.5%), are averaging the fewest points per game (14.3) and are bottom five in total offensive DVOA. They’re now facing a defense in Baltimore that ranks ninth in overall defensive DVOA. This should be an easy cover for the Ravens against a mess of a team. It’s not just bettors and fans who are angry with Denver’s poor performance — even Broncos players are turning on their new quarterback. A video went viral during the Broncos-Carolina Panthers game, with Denver defensive tackle Mike Purcell fuming at Wilson on the sideline. Can you blame him? Wilson got outplayed by Sam Darnold, and they ended up losing by 13 points. Lamar Jackson should have no problem this week covering under a field goal, leading an offense that ranks top five in total DVOA.
Cleveland Browns -7 to -1 vs. Houston Texans
Regardless of what you think of Deshaun Watson off the field, there’s no doubt he can have a major impact on the field. With his suspension officially over, he is getting thrown into the mix for the first time in 700 days (since his last regular-season start), facing his former team. In his absence, Jacoby Brissett has led the team to a top-five offense, ranking fourth in total DVOA heading into Week 13. With that being said, it’s interesting to think what the ceiling could be if Watson looks like the quarterback he once was. In his last season (2020 with the Texans) he led the league in passing yards (4,823), finished with the second-best quarterback rating (112.4) behind Aaron Rodgers, had the third-best completion percentage (70.2%) behind Rodgers and Drew Brees, and was top-10 in touchdowns (33). With all that said, the Browns should easily cover the one point here, even with Watson shaking off the rust. Houston has the sixth-worst defense in football by total DVOA, is scoring the second-fewest points (15.8), and has decided to bench starting quarterback Davis Mills — going with backup quarterback Kyle Allen, who is no better. Still, the Browns defense hasn’t looked great, which is why we will tease this down to around a pick’em.
Seattle Seahawks -7 to -1 vs. Los Angeles Rams
If you want to talk about disappointment, the Rams are at the top of that list. This season we saw much more than a Super Bowl hangover. Sean McVay is leading one of the worst offenses in the NFL — with the sixth-lowest offensive DVOA. Their defense ranks around average, but this week, it will be without All-Pro defensive tackle Aaron Donald, in addition to several other injuries to starting defenders. They’re currently led by quarterback Bryce Perkins, as Matthew Stafford is sidelined in concussion protocol, and Perkins is playing behind an offensive line scattered with injuries. With Cooper Kupp out after ankle surgery, there’s not much positive surrounding the team at this point. Seattle may have come down to earth after weeks of being a top offense, but they should still cover minus-1 here. They remain within the top-10 when it comes to total offensive DVOA and are doing enough on defense to get by. Don’t overthink this one. Tease the better and much healthier team down to cover just a point.
