NFL Week 13 Picks: Best-Bet Parlay Not Buying Dolphins-49ers Shootout

At some point, maybe we need to start rethinking the word “best” when it comes to the NESNBets NFL best-bet parlay.

We’re getting a little frustrated if you couldn’t tell.

Week 12 came and went with another loss in the weekly parlay punt, as those pesky Jacksonville Jaguars not only covered but beat the Baltimore Ravens outright. And with it, another loss got hung around our necks, as we continue to live in the red.

The good news, at least, is the finish line is in sight. At the very worst, we’ll end the season down a handful of units, which is undeniably better than being down 18 units, right?

Anyway, onto the Week 13 best-bet parlay.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears OVER 44.5
Justin Fields was a full participant Thursday at practice, meaning he’ll probably play Sunday. Aaron Rodgers has already declared himself good to go, too. So, without any backup quarterbacks holding down the total, this NFC North rivalry game could actually be a shootout. Weather doesn’t seem to be much of an issue. It will be cold with a decent breeze, but it’s nothing these teams aren’t used to. The bigger factor here is the defenses on both sides. The Packers have the NFL’s 21st-ranked defense by DVOA, and Chicago is even worse at No. 31. Green Bay is especially bad against the run, though, as we saw last week when it gave up more than 350 yards on the ground to Philadelphia. Assuming Fields is healthy enough to tuck it and run, Chicago should be able to find plenty of success with its rushing attack. On the other side, the Bears can’t stop anything or anyone. That’s bad news for them, as it looked like — before Rodgers got hurt, at least — that the Packers offense found something last Sunday in Philly with a balanced attack. Green Bay is averaging 27 points over the last three weeks, while the Bears have allowed at least 27 points in their last five games.

(+4.5) Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles certainly impressed Sunday night against Green Bay, racking up what seemed like a mile’s worth of rushing yards against a woeful Packers run defense. They’ll get a far stiffer test this weekend against Tennessee. The Titans have a top-10 defense by DVOA and actually rank first in run defense DVOA. Does that mean they’ll completely shut down the Philly rushing attack? Of course not. But the sledding should be slightly more difficult for the Eagles this week. And for as dominant as the Eagles looked at times last week against the Packers, they only won that game by a touchdown. In fact, if you want to further that comparison, it’s a little odd that the Titans — who beat the Packers in Green Bay a few weeks back — opened as 5.5-point underdogs when Philly was only a touchdown favorite last week. And as far as the Tennesse offense goes, this would be a good week to really lean into the play-action game. The Eagles run defense is still suspect, so Derrick Henry early could set up the play-action late; Green Bay used early rushing success to set up the PA last week, completing four of five passes for 112 yards and two touchdowns. Ryan Tannehill has a 118.2 passer rating on play-action this season.

Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers UNDER 46.5
On one side of the equation, you have the 49ers defense, a unit that has allowed a grand total of 40 points since a Week 7 loss to the Chiefs. In fact, the 49ers haven’t allowed a second-half point in their last three games. And if there’s any coaching staff equipped to shut down Mike McDaniel’s offense, it’s his former colleagues in San Francisco. This is also Miami’s first game without starting left tackle Terron Armstead (and maybe right tackle Austin Jackson), which could be a big problem against that 49ers pass rush. On the other side, the 49ers offense is all kinds of banged up. Christian McCaffrey missed practice this week, as did Elijah Mitchell. Deebo Samuel is dealing with a quad injury, and Jimmy Garoppolo says he’s fine, but he took a couple of shots to his knee that had him a little hobbled last week. This game was supposed to be a shootout between two fine-tuned offenses, but it looks like it might not live up to that hype, at least.