NFL Week 14 Picks: Kirk Cousins Prop; Bengals-Browns Set For Shootout?

And can the Chargers hang with the Dolphins?

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December 9, 2022

Week 14 carries on after a shocking Baker Mayfield-led Rams win on “Thursday Night Football.” Something to keep in mind for future Las Vegas bettors: The Raiders now fall to 0-4 this season when leading by double-digits at halftime.

We move on, though, and to be honest, the lines at this point in the season are tight, which makes picking sides and totals difficult. However, I did find an edge in a few games this week. Along with some teaser leg options, here are three plays I like for the rest of the NFL Week 14 slate.

Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals OVER 46.5
When these two met in Week 8, the Browns pulled out a 32-13 win. That total missed by just two points with a poor showing from the Bengals offense, without their No. 1 weapon in receiver Ja’Marr Chase. With Cincinnati bet up to a 5.5-point favorite in Week 14, the market clearly thinks we will see more offense from the Bengals this time around. I think so as well, especially with how Burrow and friends have seemed to click lately as they get healthier. This season, they have the fourth-best red-zone scoring percentage (touchdown only), and are around top five in points per game (26), with the third-most at home ( 30). Cleveland is not far behind, averaging over 24 points per game. Most of that was without Deshaun Watson, who made his Cleveland debut last week, under center. There was some visible rust Watson still needs to shake off after a 700-day-hiatus from the starting job, but the team still managed 27 points even with the quarterback easing into a new system. Cincinnati?s defense has improved and is around the top 10 in total DVOA, but Cleveland?s defense leaves much to be desired, ranking around the bottom five in total DVOA. Either way, it?s the offense that stands out for both, ranking fifth and seventh in total offensive DVOA. This total opened at 48 and has been bet down to 46, so let’s grab a number that has dipped a bit too low.

Kirk Cousins over 35.5 attempts (-120)
The Lions are home favorites in this matchup, which already tells us what type of game script to expect. Whether you think the right team is favored or not, there is expected to be a decent amount of back and forth in what is projected to be a close finish with one of the highest totals on the board. I broke down why Detroit is better than their record shows in Thursday?s article and will remind you how things went when these teams first met. Looking back at Week 3, the Lions led the majority of the game on the road, outgaining Minnesota 416-373 yards. They ended up losing by just four points, thanks to seven penalties. Cousins had 41 pass attempts in that matchup and I?m expecting a similar performance here. Cousins has reached over this attempt?s prop in eight of 12 weeks, including a loss by the hook last week against the Jets. Detroit is allowing around 34 pass attempts a game which bodes well for this matchup, considering Minnesota has the third-highest team passing play percentage in the league at 63.14%.

Miami Dolphins -3 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Miami is coming off a tough loss against the San Francisco 49ers, but the Dolphins head into Week 14 knowing they are facing a much different defense this week after being defeated by the best in the league. The Chargers are bottom-10 in total defensive DVOA, have given up eight touchdowns (seven through the air) to quarterbacks in the last three games, and should struggle against the best passing offense in the NFL (by pass DVOA). Despite having Justin Herbert under center, the Chargers rank in the bottom ten in the same category. While the Chargers have gotten healthier, they have lost three of their last four games as they sit one game behind the Jets for the final playoff spot.

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Thumbnail photo via David Reginek/USA TODAY Sports Images

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