NFL Week 14 Picks: Vikings, Eagles Among Teasers To Consider
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs also are in an alluring spot
We fell short of our three-team six-point teaser cashing last week due to one single point not covered by the Baltimore Ravens against the Denver Broncos. Lamar Jackson getting injured and leaving the game in the first quarter was certainly not part of the handicap. Let’s hope for better luck this week.
If you pair two teams in a six-point teaser at DraftKings Sportsbook, you get a line of -120 (risk $120 to win $100). If you want plus money, you can pair three teams in a six-point teaser for a payout of +160 (risking $100 wins you $160). Shopping around for the best number is important here — some sportsbooks will offer two-team six-point teasers juiced at -140, while others offer -110 or -120.
Minnesota Vikings +2.5 to +8.5 vs. Detroit Lions
This is the one game everyone is talking about. “The 10-2 Vikings are underdogs against the 5-7 Lions!” Yes, it’s a little disrespectful to Minnesota when you look at its record, but you need to dig deeper than that. It is at home for a Detroit team which has won four of its last five games, including a 26-point pounding of the Jacksonville Jaguars, following a game where they kept the Buffalo Bills within a field goal. Looking back at Week 3, the Lions actually led the majority of the game on the road against the Vikings and only lost by four points. They outgained Minnesota, 416-373, but seven penalties for 59 yards did the Lions in. Detroit then kept the Miami Dolphins to just a four-point win a few weeks later. So, yes, the Vikings have a much better record, but the Lions are a force to be reckoned with. They’ve been one of the more profitable teams against the spread this season at 8-4. In terms of total DVOA, Detroit’s defense ranks 19th just behind Minnesota at 18th. Taking a look at total DVOA on offense, Detroit actually ranks ninth while Minnesota ranks 18th. That being said, facing Justin Jefferson should worry any defense, as he’s one of the biggest wideout threats in the game. We have seen the Vikings beat top teams like the Dolphins and Bills this season, so they shouldn’t have a problem covering over a touchdown here (getting through those key numbers of three and seven).
Kansas City Chiefs -9 to -3 vs. Denver Broncos
You’re getting the best offense in the NFL (by total DVOA and points per game) versus a Denver team that is the worst in the league at scoring, with fewer than 14 points a game. The Broncos enter Week 14 with the fifth-worst offense in terms of DVOA. However, defense can win games or at least keep them close, and that’s where Denver has a slight edge here. The Broncos rank seventh in total DVOA while Kansas City ranks eighth-worst. The Chiefs have not been challenged much when it comes to opposing defenses outside of their matchup against the San Francisco 49ers. The Broncos defense may keep it in this game to some degree, but when it comes down to it, Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid should have no problem covering just a field goal against the most disappointing team in the NFL.
Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 to -0.5 vs. New York Giants
The 11-1 Eagles remain the team with the best record in the NFL. They are one of the most dangerous offenses in the passing game and have a quarterback in Jalen Hurts who is even more dangerous with his legs. He ranks 22nd overall in rushing yards and his nine rushing touchdowns ranks in the top five. Hurts is running an offense currently scoring the second most points per game (28.2), ranked third in overall offensive DVOA (behind only the Chiefs and Dolphins), and is backed by a defense ranked sixth in overall DVOA. The Giants do have some good wins this season, but they have not faced a team of the Eagles caliber — specifically Philly’s offense. Even with facing some of the weaker offenses in the league, they rank bottom five in total defensive DVOA. The Dallas Cowboys have been their toughest opponent so far, and they lost by eight two weeks ago against Dak Prescott and crew. Philadelphia has been one of the best at defending the pass, but its rush defense hasn’t been as strong since losing Jordan Davis, who was just activated off the IR, which is one of the reasons I feel better teasing them down to -1 instead of laying the touchdown. A solid game from Daniel Jones and a few explosive plays from Saquon Barkley could be the difference in the Giants covering the 6.5, but the Eagles should leave New York with a W.
