Week 16 in the NFL is full of some high-stakes matchups, and there are three players I am targeting in the prop market.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Kansas City Chiefs -10
Geno Smith Over 247.5 passing yards
The line here of Chiefs minus-10 tells us the Seahawks should be playing from behind and will have to lean on Comeback Player of the Year favorite Smith. I know everyone is worried about the cold weather across the slate; but this matchup actually has seen Over money, and the total is as high as 49.5 — which is tied for the highest on the board at some books, or second to Green Bay in Miami on Sunday. The Chiefs have clinched a playoff spot already, but the Seahawks are on the bubble, so it’s a massive game for them. Smith has gone Over 247.5 passing yards in five of his last six games, averaging over 290 in that stretch. This season, he has averaged over 260 yards a game, which makes me think this prop is set way too low. The matchup bodes well for the Over, as well, with the Chiefs pass DVOA ranking in the bottom-10. Andy Reid’s squad is allowing the fourth-most pass attempts a game with 39.6 and the fourth-most completions with 23.9 a game, so Smith should have no problem exposing one of the few Chiefs weaknesses.
Isiah Pacheco Over 14.5 rush attempts
We’re back on the Pacheco train after an easy cash last week. I don’t recommend too much exposure in a single spot when it comes to a game script, but this is another prop that I believe is set too low. I considered his yardage prop at 70.5, with at least 66 yards on the ground in his last six games, but we haven’t quite seen the explosiveness from him for me to play the Over. With only two 20-plus yard rushes this season, attempts is a safer play. The rookie running back has had 15 or more rush attempts in four of his last six games — missing one just by the hook, averaging around 16 carries in that stretch. Plus, Seattle is allowing the second-most running back rush attempts a game at 25.8. With the game script in mind, the Chiefs should be playing with a comfortable lead and will be able to lean on the budding stud in the ground game.
Green Bay Packers vs. Miami Dolphins (-3.5)
Allen Lazard Over 43.5 receiving yards
Expect this Christmas Day matchup to be a big one for Lazard. Miami is one of the teams in the hunt for the playoffs — if the season ended today, they would make it — while the Packers are on the bubble. Aaron Rodgers will need to muster up all his former MVP skills to get a win here and will use his favorite target to do so. The fifth-year wideout is averaging more than 52 receiving yards a game this season and has had more than 44 receiving yards in eight of his 12 matchups. Miami’s pass defense ranks in the bottom-10 of all NFL teams, allowing the fourth-most targets a game to receivers with 20.8, sixth-most catches with 13.4 and eighth-most receiving yards with 159.5. Lazard leads the team in targets and yards, with 14 more looks from Rodgers than the next Packer on the leaderboard. We should see plenty of volume for him in a game where Miami is at home and has a good chance of building a decent lead.