NFL Week 16 Teaser Picks: 49ers Capable Of Containing Commanders

Plus: The Bills should be able to handle the Bears


Dec 22, 2022

The stakes are high for most teams with just three weeks remaining in the NFL regular season.

We cashed our three team teaser (+160) last week so let’s run it back with two favorites and an underdog to target in Week 16.

Of note, if you pair two teams in a six-point teaser at DraftKings Sportsbook, you get a line of -120 (risk $120 to win $100). If you want plus money, you can pair three teams in a 6-point teaser for a payout of +160 (risking $100 wins you $160). Shopping around for the best number is important here as some sportsbooks will offer two-team six-point teasers juiced at -140, while others offer -110 or -120.

Buffalo Bills -8 to -2 vs. Chicago Bears
The Bills are one of three AFC teams along with the Chiefs and Bengals vying for that top seed and a first-round bye. Along with that motivation on their side, and the Bears having nothing to play for given they’ve been eliminated from the playoffs, the Bills are the better team and deserve to be laying over a touchdown. However, we can give ourselves a nice holiday sweat-free play by teasing Buffalo down under a field goal. Extreme cold, 30 MPH winds, and snow are expected for this game. Chicago may have the edge on offense when it comes to the run game but they’re facing a Bills defense that ranks third in rush DVOA and is allowing around only 106 rush yards a game (sixth-fewest in the NFL).  If the passing game is limited to due weather, Josh Allen should be able to get loose on the ground, as the Bears have allowed the eighth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season. The Bills have rattled off five straight victories, and we only need them to win by two points or more Saturday in Chicago to cash.

Washington Commanders vs. San Francisco 49ers -7 to -1
The 49ers are riding a seven game win streak with Brock “Mr. Irrelevant” Purdy taking over in the last three and shocking the football world with his success. Even if we do see some negative regression here against a Washington defense that has been solid, and is upgraded with the debut of Chase Young,  Purdy is playing behind an offensive line that has allowed only 24 sacks all season (tied for third-fewest). Plus, Purdy is backed by a defense that is allowing the fewest yards per game (286.1), fewest points (15), and is ranked the best overall in total DVOA. That defense is facing a Commanders team that is heading to San Francisco on a short week, with an offense that ranks among the bottom five in the NFL — and that will be the difference. Still, this is a Commanders team that notched a win over the NFC-favorite Eagles just a few weeks ago, so we will tease the 49ers through multiple key numbers down to -1.

Raiders +2.5 to +8.5 vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Both of these teams are on the playoff bubble and I think the Raiders have a chance at winning this one straight up, but I’ll tease them over a touchdown just in case. McDaniels’ defense does rank last in total DVOA. However, they have done just enough the last few weeks to get by, and the Steelers offense hasn’t been much of a threat to any opposing defenses. Pittsburgh has had just one win by more than eight points this season — with the only respectable wins coming against the Bengals and Bucs. They beat Cincy in a Week 1 overtime win, and got a home win against the Bucs by only two points. The rest of their wins came against the Panthers, Falcons, Colts and Saints. On the other side of the ball, the Steelers secondary has struggled. The team has allowed the fifth-most yards a game to the wide receiver position and now will compete against a stud like Davante Adams. Plus, when the Raiders offense isn’t flowing through Adams, Pittsburgh has Josh Jacobs to worry about on the ground. The Steelers are only 2-4 at home. Expect the Raiders to push their playoff hopes further away with a close game or even a win here in Pittsburgh.

Thumbnail photo via Joe Nicholson/USA TODAY Sports Images

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