Saints-Buccaneers DFS Showdown: Injury and Slate Analysis

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Andy Dalton’s New Orleans Saints will travel to Tampa Bay to take on Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in a DFS Showdown slate on Monday Night Football. The Saints have been one of the biggest disappointments in football this year, and while injuries have contributed, they have not shown enough. Dalton hasn’t moved the needle, throwing under 30 pass attempts in four straight weeks. On the other hand, Brady has recorded at least 40 pass attempts in eight of his last nine games and has thrown the fewest interceptions in the NFL. 

Alvin Kamara might be coming off his worst game as a professional, where he combined for 50 yards but accounted for two key fumbles, one being on the one-yard line. He’s only averaged nine carries per game over the last four but, ideally, will compensate safely with five targets and an upside that could approach double-digits. Mark Ingram will rotate in for some volume out of the backfield without any significant receiving impact.

Leonard Fournette is listed as questionable for tonight’s game and is expected to return. We still project Rachaad White to be the lead back over Fournette in a similar backfield with an additional receiving edge, as White totaled nine receptions last week. There could be a hot-hand element that we’ll need to keep an eye on, but out of the gate, look for both to be involved.

Chris Olave remains the Saints’ WR1 and had a 13-target day back in Week 2 against the Bucs. Suppose Kamara continues to perform as poorly as he has lately. In that case, Olave easily becomes the most dynamic weapon in this offense (that has an actual position) and would possess a substantial upside. Jarvis Landry will account for roughly five targets as the WR2 and has accounted for more red-zone volume than Olave over the past two weeks. After the top two, there is a noticeable dropoff to Rashid Shaheed, Marquez Callaway, and Tre’Quan Smith. We’ll edge out Shaheed as he’s coming off a season-high in snap% last week and has been on an upward trend in utilization.

Chris Godwin has averaged eleven targets per game over the last five weeks and is one of the PPR monsters in this league. He’s found the end zone in each of the previous two games, which would be the difference maker in separating him from his co-star at the receiver position. We’ll have to factor in the ejection factor with Mike Evans if Marshon Lattimore were to play tonight, but he possesses immense upside in his own right. Still, he hasn’t found the end zone since early October, which is concerning on a showdown slate. Five targets look to be Julio Jones’ ceiling, as there is only one football to go around. Russell Gage is listed as questionable after being out for the last four games, so this would be the first game where all four receivers are fully healthy. We’re curious to see how the snaps eventually shake out, even though they’ll still try to get the ball in Gage’s hands a few times. Breshad Perriman or Scotty Miller would rotate in sparingly as the fifth receiver. 

Cameron Brate is listed as questionable, but he practiced fully on Saturday, so we expect him to play. We’ll give him the target edge over Cade Otton, given that Brate out-targeted him 5-0. Although, we still anticipate both tight ends to see a snap share of a minimum of 40%. Ko Kieft will see some snaps but will only see a target or two if he’s lucky.

Juwan Johnson has been ruled out tonight, making Adam Trautman the TE1 by default. Trautman doesn’t possess a massive ceiling of any sort, given how the Saints have utilized tight ends this season. We’ll look for J.P. Holtz to be called up from the practice squad additionally to eat up some snaps. 

Taysom Hill is the joker card of this slate who will be touchdown dependent which is unfortunate as he hasn’t found the endzone in five straight games. Given Kamara’s choke last week, he’ll account for some rushes in key spots and maybe (and should) see some goal-line work. Without Johnson, maybe the Saints will get crazy and toss him more than a target or two.