Bills-Bengals DFS Showdown: Slate Strategy Analysis

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Josh Allen has the highest optimal projection on this DFS showdown slate on Monday Night Football between the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals. Allen might not have the eye-popping stats over the past couple of weeks, but who cares. With a projected total near 50, Allen can compete in a shootout with the best of them. His potential as the number-one rusher gives him an added edge. He’ll be deservedly expensive and highly owned with an immense ceiling. 

Joe Burrow has been balling lately and has put himself back into the MVP conversation. His passing prop total on sportsbooks sits around 280, so his viability depends on how you view his pass-catching options: Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Chase, in particular, presents himself as a strong multiplier play, with his utilization being through the roof. With 39 targets over the last three weeks, while leading the lead in red-zone targets, we’d prefer to play Chase over Burrow at the multiplier. Higgins has the ceiling to be a play, but the financial discount isn’t enough to incentivize.

Although we’d favor Chase over Burrow, we’d slightly lean toward Allen over his top pass-catcher, Stefon Diggs. Diggs has a 15-target upside, but given how Chase has been performing lately while accounting for Allen’s additional rushing upside, there might not be enough for Diggs to surpass the crowd. He still warrants some exposure, but in single-entry tournaments, he won’t be a target for us.

Given all the marquee talent surrounding him, Joe Mixon is flying under the radar on this slate. The rushing upside could be down across the board as both defenses present top-eight rush defenses regarding allowed yards per game, while the nature of the shootout could limit opportunities. However, Mixon still has a floor of roughly 12 carries and presents a solid pass-catching upside, coming off a nine-target game last week. Don’t overlook him tonight.

We’ll favor James Cook over Devin Singletary tonight as we’re projecting Cook to have a slight lean as the RB1 as an emerging rookie. We could be a bit early with this take, but it’s only a matter of time before Cook is the cemented lead back. Even if Singletary leads, the financial incentive attached to Cook makes him a stronger play in our eyes.

Gabe Davis is getting a lot of chatter as even a potential multiplier play, but we’re high on him. He’s affordable for what he brings and could shine in a potential shootout. The vertical threat he offers presents well for a showdown, and he should still see about six targets. His ownership will be high, but he’s well-positioned.

Trenton Irwin is coming off of a two-touchdown game which has his price nearly identical to Tyler Boyd, but we’re not buying that price on Irwin just yet. Boyd’s role has not been immense in this offense, yet we still favor his stability over the recency bias attached to Irwin. 

The tight ends offer a solid spot to insert financial flexibility into your lineups. We’ll lean toward Dawson Knox over Hayden Hurst. Knox was underwhelming for the first three-quarters of this season, but his role has improved dramatically over the past three weeks. With three straight weeks with a touchdown and a combined 20 targets, we like him as the third piece in Allen stacks. 

We’re unsure of Hurst’s workload coming off an injury to start. More importantly, the Bills’ defense is the only team in the league that hasn’t surrendered a touchdown to the tight end position. He is so cheap that you could still take a flier on him.

These two offenses are so concentrated that it will be tough to identify cheap talent to fill out your lineups. Kickers are a good way to go, given the projected high total, and we’re also eyeing up Khalil Shakir. Isaiah McKenzie is cheap too, but Shakir out-snapped McKenzie last week for the first time this season, so we see his role on the rise.