NFL Picks: Wild-Card Round Best-Bet Parlay Eats Chalk With 49ers
The Seahawks can't hang with the 49ers, can they?
No matter what happens the rest of the way, the NESNBets NFL best-bet parlay for the 2022 season has been a complete success.
After one of the most frustrating seasons of building near-miss parlays, the Week 18 gamble paid off in a big way. We bookended the 2022 regular season with wins, the finale being a big one, hitting on a five-leg, 17-1 payout.
That means we’ll head into the playoffs not only on a winning note but with enough in our till to guarantee a winning season. That should free us up for a winning streak all the way to the Super Bowl … right?
We are onto the playoffs, and here’s the best-bet parlay for wild-card weekend. As always, these bets are based on consensus betting lines from the NESNBets live odds page.
(-9.5) San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks
If this thing is going to die, it’s going to die right away. There are a lot of smart people who think this could be a tight game between NFC West division rivals. But how, exactly? The 49ers come in riding a 10-game winning streak, beating their opponents by an average of 16 points per game in that stretch. The Seahawks, meanwhile, haven’t scored more than 23 points in their four previous games, scoring 16 or less in three of those games — and that includes a 21-13 loss to the Niners in Seattle early in the Brock Purdy era. Only the Texans and Bears allowed more rushing yards than Seahawks, and we all know Kyle Shanahan’s run game is elite. The 49ers also bottled up Seahawks running back Ken Walker III in their two meetings, and if he can’t get going, that Nick Bosa-led pass rush pins its ears back and makes Geno Smith look like Jets-era Geno Smith. And if that wasn’t enough, the Seahawks struggle against tight ends, as evidenced by George Kittle’s two-score performance the last time they met. That was helped by a whole bunch of yards after the catch, a stat in which the 49ers led the league, while the Seahawks had the 10th-most missed tackles.
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings OVER 48
In Minnesota on Sunday, you have two of the worst defenses in the postseason. Based on DVOA, the Giants (No. 29) and the Vikings (No. 27) are the two worst defenses of the 14 teams remaining. The Giants somehow have the No. 10 offense by DVOA, and while the Vikings’ offensive standing isn’t as impressive, they have the decisive edge in playmakers, headlined by wideout Justin Jefferson and tight end T.J. Hockenson. These two offenses both started slow in their Week 16 matchup before catching fire late in that game as they went on to score a combined 51 points. New York was especially efficient, averaging 6.7 yards per play in that game, though two turnovers ultimately did them in. That was uncharacteristic for Brian Daboll’s team, as only Detroit turned it over less in the regular season (the same Lions that scored 58 points in two games vs. Minnesota). It’s easy to see why there are so many people who believe not only can the Giants cover the 3-point spread but win outright. We’re not as sure about that in large part because of how explosive the Vikings offense could be paired with a Giants defense that allowed the second-most big plays this season. But we’re more confident saying it’s going to be close, and it’s going to be high-scoring — maybe into the 30s for both clubs.
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 40.5
It’s time to start writing this thing at the beginning of the week, where we could have gotten the total at 44. We’re sticking with it, though, despite the fact it has been bet down a field goal, largely on the news that Lamar Jackson won’t play for the Ravens. Regardless, it doesn’t feel like a game where the offenses will thrive. Baltimore doesn’t have its MVP quarterback, so that’s certainly not conducive to scoring points. But it’s not like that’s unfamiliar territory for the defensive-minded Ravens. Since acquiring Roquan Smith, the Ravens are allowing just 14.7 points per game. Only San Francisco has been stingier in that run. In that same span, the Ravens have been sixth in sacks per dropback. And for as much as Joe Burrow sometimes looks like Superman, he is mortal under duress, with a 5.1% turnover-worthy pass rate under pressure that was the ninth-highest in the NFL. Cincinnati also will be without starting right guard Alex Cappa, while wideout Tee Higgins has battled a nagging injury and illness this week. And this is just the sort of game we’ve come to expect from the two, especially Baltimore. In eight of nine games since their bye week, the Ravens have had their final scores go under 43, and six of those even went under 30.
