NFL Week 18 Picks: Bills, Chiefs Both Among Teaser Options

The Cowboys should roll, too


January 5

It’s the final week of the NFL regular season, which means it’s our last full slate of teaser opportunities. Here are a few favorites who bookmakers believe will win comfortably heading into the postseason, which could save us a sweat.

Of note, if you pair two teams in a six-point teaser at DraftKings Sportsbook, you get a line of -120 (risk $120 to win $100). If you want plus money, you can pair three teams in a 6-point teaser for a payout of +160 (risking $100 wins you $160). Shopping around for the best number is important here, as some sportsbooks will offer two-team six-point teasers juiced at -140, while others offer -110 or -120.

Buffalo Bills -7.5 to -1.5 vs. New England Patriots
The Patriots kept their playoff hopes alive in Week 17 by beating the Dolphins 23-21. New England can still get into the playoffs even if it loses this one (the Dolphins, Steelers and Titans all have to lose), but an outright win is obviously the goal. The Bills beat the Patriots in Foxboro 24-10 back on Dec. 1 and will be at home this time, playing for seeding. Even more important, the team should have a lot of passion and motivation to get a win for recovering teammate Damar Hamlin. That being said, seven points is a lot for a Bill Belichick-led team in control of its own destiny. The Patriots could keep this one close if their defense, which ranks No. 1 in DVOA, is able to slow down Josh Allen and his top-ranked offense, so let?s tease down the Bills and bet on them to win by just under a field goal.

Dallas Cowboys -7 to -1 vs. Washington Commanders
I would be absolutely shocked if Dallas does not win this game by more than a touchdown. This line has moved from Cowboys -4.5, but I am surprised they’re still not bigger favorites, which makes me think I am missing something here. Washington is officially out of playoff contention and will be giving rookie quarterback Sam Howell his first NFL action. The Cowboys are pushing to win the division and are well-rested after playing last Thursday. The Commanders have averaged just over 16 points in their last five games, while Dak Prescott and friends have averaged more than 36 points in that stretch and are now facing a Commanders team without several key defenders. The Commanders haven’t won a game since late November and only have one win this season against NFC East foes. This should be a breeze of a win for Dallas, but it’s a good teaser spot, so we will tease them down to one.

Kansas City Chiefs -9 to -3 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The Chiefs are fighting to get the top seed in the AFC and should be able to do so here. The Raiders have nothing to play for after being eliminated in Week 17, but they’re coming off an impressive overtime loss to the 49ers. Former Patriots quarterback Jarrett Stidham threw for 365 yards and three touchdowns in his starting debut. The third-year veteran led his team to a near-win against the best defense in the NFL, so there’s no telling what he could do against a much lesser defense in Kansas City. That being said, Brock Purdy is not Patrick Mahomes, and the Chiefs offense should get the job done. Tease Andy Reid’s squad down to a field goal in Saturday’s afternoon matchup.

Other legs that work well in a traditional teaser:

Jacksonville Jaguars -6 to PK vs. Tennessee Titans
The winner here wins the AFC South and gets a home playoff game. The Titans have lost six straight but are getting healthier, especially on the defensive side. Plus, QB Joshua Dobbs looked solid in Week 17. If you like the Jags to win, tease them down to a pick ’em.

Minnesota Vikings -7.5 to -1.5 vs. Chicago Bears
Chicago ruled Justin Fields out of this game with a hip injury, which made the Vikings heavier favorites. If you didn’t grab the number before the Fields news but want to play the Vikings, putting them in a teaser is a good option. The Bears are out of playoff contention and are coming off a 41-10 loss to the Lions. A loss actually benefits Chicago here, since they would earn the No. 1 overall pick with a loss and a Texans win over the Colts. Plus, Minnesota can get a better seed with a win (if the 49ers lose), and the Vikings should do just that.

Thumbnail photo via Jay Biggerstaff/USA TODAY Sports Images

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