Which NFL Underdogs can Cover in the Divisional Round?

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Jan 18, 2023

With eight teams remaining in the NFL playoffs, there’s likely some value to be found with some underdogs suiting up for the Divisional Round.

The Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, and San Francisco 49ers all picked up Wild Card victories. At the same time, the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles had byes. 

Below, we’ll look into some of the underdogs for this weekend’s matchups with their odds on the FanDuel Sportsbook. 

Jacksonville Jaguars (+8.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs Saturday 4:30 PM ET 

After being down 27-0 to the Los Angeles Chargers on Wild Card Weekend, it wasn’t expected that the Jacksonville Jaguars would find a way to advance, but here we are. This will be the second meeting between the Jags and Kansas Chiefs this season, with Patrick Mahomes and company picking up a 27-17 victory earlier. If the Jaguars have a start similar to the one they had against the Chargers last weekend, they won’t stand a chance of keeping this game to a single-digit margin. Expect the rest to pay off for the Chiefs and for them to show Jacksonville why they’re a perennial contender. 

Lean: Fade the Jaguars as big underdogs 

New York Giants (+7.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles Saturday 8:15 PM ET

Two NFC East rivals are set to face off in the Divisional Round, with the top seed Philadelphia Eagles sitting as 7.5 point favorites over the New York Giants. If you look at the two matchups that transpired during the regular season, you can make a good case for why those odds make sense, considering the Eagles outscored the Giants 70-38. Still, the second game was decided by just six points, and the G-Men were playing a lot of backups, which should give them some confidence entering this third game. Even though the Eagles have an explosive offense, the Giants can score too, and they should be able to keep this close enough where siding with the Giants to keep it close has some value. 

Lean: Take the Giants to keep it close

Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5) vs. Buffalo Bills Sunday 3:00 PM ET

Two explosive offenses are set to headline the Sunday double-header in the Divisional Round, with the Buffalo Bills hosting the Cincinnati Bengals. Neither contender looked super impressive in their Wild Card victories, but there’s good reason to expect fireworks come Sunday afternoon. There’s not a lot separating the Bills and Bengals in this matchup, which should lead bettors to really liking the price point of Cincinnati as 4.5 point underdogs. As a result, expect the Bengals to keep this one close and for this matchup to ultimately be decided by a field goal. 

Lean: Bengals/Bills decided by a field goal 

Dallas Cowboys (+3) vs. San Francisco 49ers 6:30 PM ET 

After dismantling Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday, the Dallas Cowboys are set to enter their matchup against the San Francisco 49ers as field-goal underdogs. The Cowboys looked like a different team than we’ve been treated to in years prior in the postseason, and that could create some issues for a surging 49ers team that’s the hottest group in football. The 49ers knocked out the Cowboys last season in a similar environment on the road, meaning don’t be surprised if Dallas returns the favor with the upset here. 

Lean: Cowboys +3

Thumbnail photo via Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

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