It's Super Bowl Prop Time! What Type of Bettor Are You?
We’re nine days away from Super Bowl Sunday, which undoubtedly will set a record for most proposition bets on a single game. I’ve broken up some of the non-player props into three categories. What type of bettor are you?The 50-50 Degen
These are bets that are literally 50-50 propositions. Although some will argue one side of the coin weighs more than the other, I don’t have time for that. I don’t know if it’s true or if it matters. Bottom line, What will be the outcome of the coin toss? is the quintessential degen bet.
Wagering what the first score will be is too long of a wait for you; you need immediate action! At BetMGM, the odds are -105 for heads and tails. If you were wondering, 56 percent of the bets have come in on tails for 59 percent of the handle. A bit of a surprise. Do we fade the public?
A less popular bet, but just as degenerate is, Which team will win the coin toss? Similarly, there’s an equal vigorish on either side, -105 on the Chiefs and Eagles. I have one question for Andy Reid, ya feeling lucky? Seriously, are you?
The bettors seem to think so, as 59 percent of the handle is on the Chiefs winning the coin toss. When I tried to combo KC with tails for a parlay, I was greeted with the most unpleasant of messages, âsome of your selections cannot be combined.â Sigh, maybe next year.
Another toss-up-ish bet you can make ahead of Super Bowl Sunday is, Which team will call the first timeout? I’m sure there are metrics measuring the timeout rate of both teams/coaches, but can we rely on that in such a big game?
When looking at the insights, this appears to be a Pros vs. Joes, a Sharps vs. Squares situation, as 69 percent (nice) of the tickets are on KC (-115) but for just 57 percent of the handle. Meanwhile, 31 percent of the tickets on Philly (-115) generate 43 percent of the action.
I can’t help but wonder if some South Jersey sharps have some inside info.The Longshot Better
Will the game go into overtime? âYes,â will net you +850 odds, where 83 percent of the action has gone. An appealing number until you realize it’s happened once in whatever number LVI is, Super Bowls. I know it’s over 50, and those odds aren’t great.
How about the 17 percent of you laying -3000 on ânoâ for what you think is an easy buck? No such thing exists, and you kinda know since you represent 11 percent of the handle.
I’d instead go with Will there be a safety in the game? Those odds are +750 for yes, and -2000 for no. At least there have been nine safeties in Super Bowl history. While 77 percent are on yes, it appears to be a square bet with just 61 percent of the handle.You Think You Know
This final group of prop bets offers the illusion of knowability.
Will the team to score the first points win the game? It’s likely, which is why yes is -200. However, it would have been a loser in even some of the biggest blowouts in Super Bowl history. With his beautiful bare right foot, New England’s Tony Franklin put the Patriots ahead 3-0 in 1986 before the Chicago Bears scored the following 44 points.
But, had you bet âyesâ on safety back then (odds unknown), you would have been a winner because the final score in Chicago’s 46-10 win was appropriately by the defense, a sack of Steve Grogan for a safety.
Finally, BetMGM also offers, Will the opening kickoff be a touchback? Yes is -165, and no is +130.
Again, surely a simple google search will quickly tell you the percentage of kickoffs that were a touchback in the NFL during the 2022 season, the playoffs, when Philly kicks off, when KC kicks off, when the Eagles receive, and when the Chiefs receive.
What 100 percent of the betters don’t know, can’t know, is what’s in a man’s heart.
With the adrenaline pumping and thousands of flashes going off, does the kicker boot the kick of his life or miss by a fraction of an inch, forcing a return on a short kick? Does the return man feel a gulp in his throat, fearing being the goat (not GOAT), and take the safe route, or did he grow up with a Green Bay Packers Desmond Howard poster in his bedroom?
If I knew it was the latter, I’d be running to the teller faster than Devin Hester to bet the house!