It’s pretty hard to predict an MVP winner without getting a good price prior to the start of each Major League Baseball season. It’s such a tossup, that you’re bound to run into a good price for your pick.
Well, at least for the most part. Just take a look at 2022 for example.
Paul Goldschmidt, the winner in the National League, entered the season with +5000 odds to take home the award. It’s fair to call that a long-shot winner. Aaron Judge, the winner in the American League, was not. Judge entered 2022 with the second-best odds (+1500) behind Shohei Ohtani, who was expected to repeat with a ridiculous +370 number.
That’s why didn’t do so hot in trying to pick long-shot MVP candidates prior to last season.
We selected Matt Chapman, George Springer and Kyle Tucker in the AL, while tabbing Pete Alonso, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rendon in the NL. None of those players finished in the top-seven of voting, with Rendon playing in a grand total of 47 games.
We’re bound to bounce back this season, right?
Hopefully. Here are six more players — three in each league — who represent betting value as 30-1 or deeper long shots to win their respective MVP Award this season.
(All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook)
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Rafael Devers (+3000)
Let’s start with the most-likely option amongst our bunch. Rafael Devers finished 14th in AL MVP voting last season, despite having a slow year at the plate compared to what Red Sox fans have become used to. His home runs, RBIs and hits all took a slight dip in what was otherwise another stellar season from the plate. Why do we expect an improvement into the MVP conversation? Two things: the Red Sox should be much better in 2023 and Devers signed a big, fat contract to finally lock him up in Boston for the foreseeable future.
Randy Arozarena (+6500)
If someone tells Randy Arozarena that every game actually means something, he might just have a Barry Bonds-level season. Arozarena, who exploded onto the scene with a historic performance in the 2020 World Series, put together another tremendous string of games in the 2023 World Baseball Classic.
It feels like team success will closely tie into whether or not the 28-year-old is actually vaulted into consideration for the award. He’s got 20 home run pop, but a jump in RBIs and another successful Rays season where he is the star may be enough — especially if he continues to make himself a household name.
Jeremy Peña (+12000)
There are few Astros who aren’t up for MVP this season. Yordan Alvarez (+1200), Kyle Tucker (+2500) and Alex Bregman (+6000) all have a case, but Jeremy Peña provides the best value. The 25-year-old has played in just 149 games in his MLB career, but has already secured a World Series ring, World Series MVP, AL Championship Series MVP and the AL Rookie of the Year. That is absolutely absurd.
Peña added significant size over the offseason and already had 20-homer pop as a rookie. He’ll be leading off for some of the best hitters in the world, meaning he’ll score a ton of runs and have opportunities to drive some in as well. This is a no-brainer if you’re looking for long odds.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Corbin Burnes (+15000)
Let’s get crazy, shall we?
The saga between Corbin Burnes and the Milwaukee Brewers has been hilarious to watch from afar. After winning the 2021 AL Cy Young and making two-consecutive All-star games, Burnes was boned by the Brewers who took him to arbitration and won. Milwaukee now gets to pay him $10.01 million instead of the $10.75 million he requested, thoroughly angering him and hopefully leading to another stellar season. He’ll likely even get traded to a contender, upping his national exposure. Will that be enough to make him the first sole-pitcher to win MVP since Clayton Kershaw in 2014? We’ll see.
Kyle Schwarber (+3500)
The people love home runs, and Kyle Schwarber hits a boatload of them.
Schwarber led the NL with 46 bombs last season and will return to a stacked Philadelphia lineup that is good enough to make another World Series run. His place as a hybrid leadoff/clean-up hitter should provide some big numbers, which is apparently all you need nowadays.
Michael Harris II (+4500)
We took a shot with the 2022 AL ROTY, now let’s transition to the NL ROTY.
Just like the rest of his fellow Braves, Harris already signed his contract extension that ties him to Atlanta for the long haul. The 22-year-old will slide down to the five-hole in Atlanta’s lineup which should afford him more RBI and home run opportunities than the leadoff spot. After playing in just 114 regular season games in 2022, he’ll likely hit the 150 mark and see his numbers balloon. Another great season for the Braves may be enough to hand the MVP to their best player.
