The GOAT of mixed martial arts returns to headline UFC 285 as former Light Heavyweight Champion Jon Jones faces No. 1 ranked heavyweight Ciryl Gane. Before one of the biggest draws in MMA history takes the stage, there are some great fights on the undercard. Let’s start in the lightweight division.
- Date: Saturday, March 4, 2023 | Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: T-Mobile Arena – Paradise, Nevada | TV: PPV
No. 7 lightweight Mateusz “Gamer” Gamrot looks to rebound after losing to Beneil Dariush in his last match, taking on No. 10 Jalin “The Tarantula” Turner. Before his last fight, Gamrot was on a four-fight win streak, beating Scott Holtzman, Jeremy Stephens, Carlos Diego Ferreira, and Arman Tsarukyan. Turner is riding an active five-fight win streak, finishing Joshua Culibao, Brok Weaver, Uros Medic, Jamie Mullarkey, and Brad Riddell (two KO/TKO, three submissions). Both fighters are promising talents in the lightweight division.
Turner is significantly larger, standing five inches taller and having a 6.5-inch reach advantage. The Tarantula picks up 69 percent of his wins via KO/TKO and averages 1.43 knockdowns per 15 minutes, while 86 percent of Gamrot’s wins are by decision, and he only averages 0.21 knockdowns per 15 minutes. Turner lands 6.48 significant strikes per minute to Gamrot’s 3.26 and absorbs 0.97 more. Look for Turner to rip to the body with a left hook and follow with a right to the head, while Gamrot relies more on straight punches.
Gamrot will have the wrestling edge, averaging 4.66 takedowns per 15 minutes to Turner’s 1.14. Gamer also has the better takedown defense rate at 90 percent. However, Turner’s 70 percent takedown defense rate is decent, and he averages 1.78 more submissions per 15 minutes. Gamrot has a good single-leg takedown and looks to transition to the back position.
Turner has been making strides in his last few fights, but Gamrot is the more technical of the two. Gamrot’s striking is tighter and more efficient, and he’s more seasoned on the ground. He is a -225 outright favorite but has more value to win by submission (+250) or decision (+270). Gamrot might be playing with fire on the ground, with Turner throwing out so many submission attempts, but it’s also his best path to victory.
UFC Women’s Flyweight Championship BoutUFC Champion Valentina “Bullet” Shevchenko gives No. 6 Alexa Grasso a chance at her title. After losing to Amanda Nunes for the UFC Women’s Bantamweight Champion, Shevchenko returned to flyweight and won nine-straight bouts, eight of which were flyweight title fights. Shevchenko has losses in her MMA career, twice to Nunes and once to Liz Carmouche (doctor stoppage), and she avenged her early loss to Carmouche. Grasso enters on a four-fight win streak, beating Kim Ji-yeon, Maycee Barber, Joanne Wood, and Viviane Araujo.
Both women are five feet five inches tall, but Shevchenko will have a half-inch reach advantage. Despite Bullet being the superior striker, Grasso actually averages 1.95 more significant strikes landed. However, Shevchenko absorbs 1.9 significant strikes per minute to Grasso’s 4.02.
The Pole averages 2.53 takedowns per 15 minutes to Grasso’s 0.44. Both have similar takedown defense rates at 64 and 57 percent.
Shevchenko had an underwhelming performance in her previous fight, so she might come out with something to prove. At -720, it’s not worth taking her to win outright. The challenge is deciding between Shevchenko winning by decision (+200) or KO/TKO (+230). Grasso has never been finished by knockout, so we’ll roll the dice on a Shevchenko decision win.
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane Undercard Betting PicksAll Odds are courtesy of the FanDuel Sportsbook.
- Gamrot by submission (+250)
- Shevchenko by decision (+200)
