Las Vegas betting math doesn’t support Mac Jones and the New England Patriots in 2023.
The Patriots currently have the 14th-best odds at the Westgate SuperBook to reach Super Bowl LVIII, with only the Indianapolis Colts (60-1) and Houston Texans (60-1) having longer odds than New England (50-1) to represent the AFC at Allegiant Stadium.
It’s also worth noting the Pats’ regular-season win total is 7.5, the lowest it’s been this century.
“More than anything, it speaks to the strength of the AFC,” SuperBook executive director John Murray told NESN. “The AFC quarterbacks are so much better than the NFC ones and most of the AFC teams have studs that are in the primes of their careers. It’s really hard to picture a team like New England coming out of that conference and getting into the playoffs — even with Bill Belichick at the helm.
“The jury is still out on Mac Jones and I don’t really know that New England’s roster is all that strong. Regardless of what you think of Tua (Tagovailoa), Miami has a way better roster than New England does in my opinion. New York added Aaron Rodgers and there’s no reason to think Buffalo won’t be very good this year. It’s just tough to see the Patriots making up that much ground.
“The Bills, Jets and Dolphins all have better rosters than the Patriots do.”
Jones remains a polarizing figure in Boston after a strong rookie campaign in 2021 followed by a very eye-opening regression in 2022 thanks to “offensive coordinator” Matt Patricia’s horrendous scheming and play calling. The Patriots certainly did Jones no favors last year and 2023 is a pivotal year for his growth as a professional quarterback.
But one quick glance around the AFC shows how much the Pats are behind the eight-ball.
SuperBook’s NFL MVP market (AFC QBs):
Patrick Mahomes (+600 -> $100 wins $600)
Joe Burrow (+600)
Josh Allen (+850)
Justin Herbert (+850)
Aaron Rodgers (+1200)
Trevor Lawrence (+1200)
Lamar Jackson (+1600)
Tua Tagovailoa (+1600)
Deshaun Watson (+3000)
Russell Wilson (+4000)
Kenny Pickett (+5000)
Jimmy Garoppolo (+6000)
Mac Jones (+8000)
Ryan Tannehill (+20000)
C.J. Stroud (+30000)
Anthony Richardson (+30000)
“Jones definitely has to prove himself,” Murray admitted. “He needs to show me more before I say he’s better than Garoppolo or Pickett. I actually think Pickett looked pretty good at times last season. Now, if Jones was over in the NFC, this is a different conversation. But he’s not. There’s not much room to move.
“A great quarterback can help you jump over teams. Kansas City doesn’t have a great roster. There are much better 53-man rosters in the AFC, but the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes and he’s the ultimate difference-maker. New England has a mediocre roster and a mediocre quarterback.”