With the series shifting back to South Beach for Game 6, the Miami Heat will try to finish off the Boston Celtics on their home floor tonight.
All odds courtesy of the FanDuel Sportsbook.Boston Celtics (-144) vs. Miami Heat (+122) Total: 210 (O-112, U-108)
After Miami took a 3-0 series lead over Boston, this series looked all but over, yet we now find ourselves staring a Game 6 in the face. The Celtics seemed relatively lifeless throughout the first three games of this series, but something clicked in Game 4, and they’ve now won two straight games to get here.
Boston is listed as a slight road favorite on the moneyline and spread tonight, with the C’s favored by three points and -144 on the moneyline. The Heat sits at +122 to close this series out. What’s interesting about this series is that there haven’t been any close contests, making a three-point spread something to keep an eye on.
Boston has held Miami to under 100 points in both of their victories, and that’s something to keep an eye on tonight. The Celtics have shown to be much better defensively than they did earlier in this series, which is very telling with their playoff lives continuing to be on the line.
Miami is much better suited to handle Boston’s runs at home, and that’s what we expect tonight in Game 6. There’s a reason no team in NBA history has come back from being down 3-0, and it’s hard to believe a hot-and-cold Boston team would be the first to complete that historic feat. As a result, we like the value that the Heat present at +122.
Best Bet: Heat moneyline (+122)
Looking at their four regular season matchups, they combined to score 215, 255, 236, and 193 points. In addition, the Heat and Celtics have combined to score 239, 216, 230, 215, and 207 in this playoff series. The total for Game 6 is 210, with the over sitting at -112 and the under sitting at -108. As the series has continued to progress, the games have become tighter defensively, even if the margin of victory doesn’t always reflect that at the end of the game. With that, there’s value here in backing Game 6 as a tightly contested defensive affair, meaning the under has value at -108.
Best Bet: Under 210 (-108)
If the Miami Heat have hopes of closing out the Eastern Conference Finals, they will need contributions from more than just Jimmy Butler. One player that stands out as our favorite play of the day is Heat big man Bam Adebayo. Some interesting trends surround him, including his recording 19 or more points in two of Miami’s first three victories in this series. He’s cooled down of late, but a big key to Miami winning has been him getting volume. Since we like Miami to close it out tonight, Adebayo going over 18.5 points is almost essential.
Best Prop: Bam Adebayo to Record Over 18.5 Points (-102)