NFL Net Rest Edge Explainer: An Advantage Predicting Season Totals

Looking deep into the NFL schedule is key when making futures plays. It offers an opportunity to forecast team performances, especially regarding win totals and division bets. Among the many variables that might affect these forecasts, one fascinating factor is net rest edge.

What is Net Rest Edge

Net rest edge is a measure of the total days of extra rest a team has compared to their opponents over the course of the season. While it may seem insignificant, it’s a factor that can’t be ignored.

The Influence of Rest on Win Totals

Last season provides an excellent example of the importance of net rest edges. Of the 10 teams with net rest edges of plus five days or better, seven went over their season win total. On the other hand, of the nine teams with net rest edges of minus five days or worse, seven went under their season win total.

While it might be premature to expect a 70% success rate in future predictions based on rest edges, there’s little doubt that it’s a significant factor. And it’s not just about season win totals, as net rest edges also matter on a game-by-game basis.

Rest Advantages Late in the Season

Rest becomes even more crucial as the season progresses. Teams with a three-plus day rest advantage over their opponents from Week 13 onward (roughly Thanksgiving and beyond) cover the spread at a clip of 55.7%. This demonstrates that rest matters and has a meaningful impact on games.

Increasing Rest Disparity in NFL Games

The NFL seems to recognize this significance as the number of games with a rest disparity steadily increases. This season, 35% of all games feature one team having extra rest over their opponent. This means that in over one in three games, rest could tilt the scales in favor of one team.

The Takeaway

While rest disparity may seem minor at first glance, its influence on team performances is evident. As such, it becomes essential to consider when making season forecasts or betting on individual games.

Keeping an eye on these rest differences as the season unfolds could provide the extra edge needed to make more accurate predictions. Whether you’re a casual fan or a seasoned bettor, understanding and capitalizing on these rest edges could enhance your enjoyment and understanding of the NFL season.

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