It’s a gorgeous day for some early MLB action. We’re taking a look at those L.A. Dodgers playing under East Coast sunlight with a 12:35 PM first pitch in Cincinnati. LA is carrying a -241 moneyline number as they continue their road trip. Our over/under is sitting at a rather hefty 9.5 runs after opening at 10, but given the small ballpark and the weather, it’s not surprising.
Weather conditions are superb for the third day in a row, with temperatures in the mid-seventies at first pitch and wind gusting out to right field. These factors could very well lead to a high-scoring game, although yesterday, we did see a more defensive display with Noah Syndergaard taking the mound for the Dodgers. He’s not been at his best this year, even self-deprecatingly declaring himself the “weakest link” on the team.
The starting pitcher for the Dodgers today is Clayton Kershaw, who’s been showing strong numbers this season. But it’s not just about Kershaw’s pitching. Let’s talk about the Dodger bats facing off against Graham Ashcraft today. Over the past 30 days, Ashcraft is carrying a high xFIP number of 5.18 and a less-than-stellar K percentage.
The Dodgers, however, are an equal-opportunity team at the plate. Looking at lefty splits against Ashcraft, he’s faced 51 batters, and they’ve reached a whopping .490 weighted on-base percentage. Against right-handed batters, the numbers are not much better, with 71 plate appearances leading to a .388 weighted on-base percentage and an ISO number of .258.
These statistics validate the moneyline of the Dodgers. The question now is whether Kershaw can provide a more commanding performance than the Dodgers’ previous starting pitchers and bullpen. The over/under of 9.5, while high, is reflective of recent high-scoring games rather than an expectation for Kershaw’s performance.
Lastly, let’s touch upon the team total of six runs for the Dodgers. It’s a tall order, but considering Kershaw’s last impressive outing against the New York Yankees â where he gave seven solid innings, allowing only four hits and two runs â it might not be out of reach. Let’s see how Kershaw handles the conditions and how the Dodgers respond at the plate.
Starting Pitcher: Clayton Kershaw: 7-4, 3.25 ERA, 10.90 K/9
|1.||RF||Mookie Betts||.257, 16 HR, 37 RBI|
|2.||1B||Freddie Freeman||.328, 11 HR, 39 RBI|
|3.||DH||J.D. Martinez||.276, 15 HR, 43 RBI|
|4.||3B||Max Muncy||.206, 18 HR, 44 RBI|
|5.||LF||David Peralta||.241, 2 HR, 20 RBI|
|6.||2B||Miguel Vargas||.234, 6 HR, 28 RBI|
|7.||SS||Chris Taylor||.203, 9 HR, 21 RBI|
|8.||CF||James Outman||.230, 9 HR, 30 RBI|
|9.||C||Austin Barnes||.095, 0 HR, 3 RBI|
Starting Pitcher: Graham Ashcraft: 3-4, 6.64 ERA, 7.07 K/9
|1.||1B||Kevin Newman||.270, 2 HR, 19 RBI|
|2.||SS||Matt McLain||.348, 2 HR, 10 RBI|
|3.||2B||Jonathan India||.280, 6 HR, 31 RBI|
|4.||3B||Elly De La Cruz||.429, 1 HR, 2 RBI|
|5.||LF||Spencer Steer||.291, 8 HR, 32 RBI|
|6.||DH||Tyler Stephenson||.247, 4 HR, 26 RBI|
|7.||RF||T.J. Hopkins||.300, 0 HR, 1 RBI|
|8.||CF||Jose Barrero||.224, 2 HR, 17 RBI|
|9.||C||Curt Casali||.172, 0 HR, 5 RBI|
- The over hit in 5 of the Los Angeles Dodgers last 5 games on the road in 2023
- The over hit in 3 of the Cincinnati Reds last 5 games at home in 2023