A women’s bantamweight championship bout headlines UFC 289 as champion Amanda Nunes defends her title against No. 5 Irene Aldana.
- Date: Saturday, June 10, 2023 | Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Rogers Arena – Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada | TV: PPV
No. 13 ranked featherweight Dan Ige looks to string together a couple of wins with a victory over Nate “The Train” Landwehr. Ige is coming off a knockout of Damon Jackson but dropped his three fights previous. Landwehr has won three straight, beating Austin Lingo, David Onama, and Ludovit Klein. Despite losing three of his past four contests, Ige has fought a much higher level of competition than Landwehr.
Landwehr is two inches taller and has a one-inch reach advantage. Ige has underrated power at featherweight, with a knockdown average of 0.42 per 15 minutes. Landwehr has impressive output, landing 6.47 significant strikes per minute but absorbs 5.51. Landwehr’s tendency to get hit will not bode well against Ige. Both fighters have a similar takedown rate, but Landwehr has an impressive 86 percent takedown defense rate. The Train also averages 1.03 more submissions per 15 minutes.
At -260, Ige is a significant favorite, but with his power, it’s worth betting on him to land a KO/TKO at +170.
Back AgainFormer UFC Lightweight Champion Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira returns to the cage against No. 4 Beneil Dariush. Oliveira’s last time out, he lost his title to Islam Makhachev by submission. Before his loss, Oliveira won 11 fights in a row, finishing ten (seven submissions, three knockouts). Dariush is riding an eight-fight win streak and is hoping a win over Oliveira leads to his first UFC title shot.
Both fighters are five-foot-ten, but Oliveira has a two-inch reach advantage. Oliveira is a finisher anywhere, an accurate puncher, and a slick submission grappler. Do Bronx has some defensive issues but can rebound after sustaining significant damage. Dariush lands 3.81 significant strikes per minute to Oliveira’s 3.48. Dariush also possesses power and absorbs 0.65 fewer significant strikes than Oliveira. Do Bronx averages 0.42 more takedowns per 15 minutes, but Dariush has an 80 percent takedown defense rate. The submission edge favors Oliveira, who averages 2.78 submissions per 15 minutes. Dariush is an accomplished grappler but is more of a top player, while Oliveira is comfortable on the bottom.
Surprisingly Dariush is the favorite at -148, so getting Oliveira with plus-money at +120 is a no-brainer.
UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship Main Event- Amanda Nunes vs. Irene Aldana
- Odds to Win: Nunes -350 | Aldana +255
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO -120 | Submission +360 | Decision +190
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes +198 | No -260
Double UFC Champion Amanda “The Lioness” Nunes meets No. 5 Irene Aldana with her UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship on the line. Nunes is coming off a revenge win over Julianna Pena, reclaiming her lost bantamweight title. Before that, Nunes cleaned out two divisions reeling off 12 straight wins. Aldana is coming off two consecutive wins at catchweights of 140 and 139.5 lbs. However, she won both by knockout.
Aldana is one inch taller, but Nunes will have a half-inch reach advantage. The champ has significant power, averaging 0.71 knockdowns per 15 minutes. Aldana also has power, gaining eight of her 14 wins by KO or TKO. Aldana averages 0.99 more significant strikes landed per minute but absorbs a staggering 2.96 more. Nunes will have the takedown advantage, averaging 2.61 per minute to Aldana’s 0.2. Both fighters have an excellent takedown defense rate at 81 and 82 percent.
At -340, Nunes is a significant favorite and lacks value as an outright bet. Of Nunes’s past five fights, she’s won four, three of which by decision. At +310, Nunes winning by decision offers the most value.
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana Betting Card- Ige by KO/TKO (+170)
- Oliveira to win (+120)
- Nunes by decision (+310)
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