Denver Broncos NFL Season Wins Total: Over/Under 8.5

It was a troubling season in 2022-23 for the Denver Broncos, but expectations are higher in 2023-24 with new head coach Sean Payton in the fold.

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It wasn’t a successful debut season for Russell Wilson under center for the Denver Broncos last year. Wilson was dealt to Denver from the Seattle Seahawks last offseason but struggled to get on the right footing during his first year with the franchise. Wilson’s touchdown to interception ratio was uncharacteristically poor, throwing for just 16 touchdowns while getting picked off eleven times. If Denver hopes to return to the postseason picture, Payton must unlock the old Wilson. It’s hard to see Wilson returning to his old elite levels when his agility and speed have taken a hit. That doesn’t mean Payton can’t help orchestrate a more efficient offense, though; in fact, we’re betting on it.

It’s no secret that the Broncos love to run the football too, which should continue to be the focal point on offense. Standout youngster Javonte Williams is expected to receive a heavy workload, but whether he starts the year on time is still in question. Regardless, the Broncos have a high-end offensive line, and they should be able to plug-and-play production at the position until Williams is back to 100%. 

On defense, the Broncos are projected to be an above-average unit. Cornerback Patrick Surtain II is one of the most well-kept secrets in the league, and Frank Clark was a shrewd bargain signing in free agency. This defense could surprise some people and ultimately be the difference to the Broncos going over .500. We’re more bullish on this unit than the average person, which makes us view this team a little higher than most. 

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In Wilson’s first season with Denver, the team finished a lackluster 5-12. Entering 2023-24, they have a win total set at 8.5, with the over listed at +106 and the under -132. Is it reasonable to expect the Broncos to win four more games than they did one year ago? It’s not out of the question if many things go right. Still, we believe that Wilson won’t return to an acceptable form, which will ultimately be too much for this football team to overcome. We view this football team as a seven or eight-win group, meaning we’ll settle on the under-8.5 wins at -132. 

Verdict: Under 8.5 wins (-132) 

All odds courtesy of the FanDuel Sportsbook.