Home Derby Prop: Will T-Mobile Park Hamper Home Run Distances?


Jul 10, 2023

The MLB world is buzzing as we dive deep into the exciting realm of home run distances, an arena where betting odds and player stats intertwine in intriguing ways.

To set the Home Run Derby stage, the over-under for the longest home run is set at a substantial 485.5 feet. A player hitting a ball over the astounding 500-foot mark comes with a tempting +130, while the odds of a player breaking the record set by Juan Soto at 520 feet are a whopping +750. Soto’s impressive achievement occurred in 2021 at Coors Field. Soto hit the longest home run last year at Dodger Stadium, launching a ball 482 feet.

This sparks conversations about weather impact and ballpark configuration. One wonders whether balls might be flying out a bit more in Seattle or if factors such as weather and local conditions might stunt the flight of these home runs.

West Coast stadiums aren’t typically categorized as hitter ballparks. The impact of the marine layer results in thicker air, potentially reducing ball travel distances. For instance, San Diego’s Petco Park, home to the Padres, is often misconstrued as a hitter’s park. However, in reality, it favors pitchers more, as does Dodger Stadium, Angel Stadium, Oracle Park, Oakland Coliseum, and T-Mobile Park.

Unrelated to elevation levels, this marine layer phenomenon can potentially stunt the ball by a foot or two. In a home run competition, this slight difference can mean the world.

Yet, as we look towards the upcoming competitions, a question arises: who in their right mind would bet the under? After all, we know they’ll be hitting ‘juiced’ baseballs. In an age of spectacle, we wouldn’t put it past Major League Baseball to give us a grand headline, perhaps tweaking those tracking systems up a few feet for added excitement.

The show must go on, and we all love fireworks in this baseball spectacle. However, it’s hard to bet the under in such circumstances, but if there’s a place to do so, it’s probably Seattle. With its notorious marine layer, the Emerald City could be the exception to the rule, a place where less may prove to be more.

Thumbnail photo via Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

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