MLB Home Run Derby Betting Insights: Guerrero and Alonso Stand Out


Jul 10, 2023

Major League Baseball’s annual Home Run Derby is a favorite among fans and bettors, offering a thrilling spectacle of power and precision. Here’s an analysis of the latest betting insights from BetMGM.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Toronto Blue Jays and Julio Rodriguez of the Seattle Mariners lead the charge with the most significant line movement. Both players have seen their odds improve since the market opened, a strong indication of the faith bettors have in these young sluggers.

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Guerrero’s odds moved from +400 to +350, suggesting a heavy volume of bets in his favor.

Highest Ticket%

  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr: 17.5%
  • Pete Alonso: 15.4%
  • Julio Rodriguez: 15.3%

He also leads the pack with the highest ticket percentage at 17.5%. With his impressive batting performance in years past, it’s no surprise that many are backing Guerrero to shine in the Derby.

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Similarly, Rodriguez’s odds have also shortened, moving from +550 to +500. Rodriguez is not far behind Guerrero in the ticket percentage category, capturing 15.3% of the betting action. However, he has outperformed Guerrero regarding handle percentage, taking in a solid 19.2% of all money wagered.

Highest Handle%

  • Pete Alonso: 21.4%
  • Julio Rodriguez: 19.2%
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr: 17.4%

Pete Alonso (+300) of the New York Mets, the 2019 and 2021 Home Run Derby winner, is also a popular pick. Alonso’s ticket percentage is substantial at 15.4%, but he truly stands out in the handle percentage, where he leads with a significant 21.4% of all money brought in. This demonstrates a high level of confidence in Alonso from those placing larger bets.

Biggest Liability

  • Mookie Betts
  • Adley Rutschman
  • Julio Rodriguez

The players posing the biggest liability to BetMGM are Mookie Betts (+1200) of the Los Angeles Dodgers, Adley Rutschman (+2000) of the Baltimore Orioles, and, again, Rodriguez. These players have garnered enough attention from bettors that their success in the Derby could lead to big payouts. Their longer odds are a big reason they represent the greatest risks to the bookmaker.

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As with any event, outcomes in the Home Run Derby can be unpredictable. Despite the odds and betting trends, any player has a shot at victory, making it an exciting and dynamic event for both fans and bettors. Be sure to watch line movements and betting percentages as we approach the big night – they can offer valuable insights to help shape your betting strategy. 

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Thumbnail photo via Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

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