Are the Bengals Overvalued in Super Bowl LVIII Betting?

No team’s championship aspirations rest solely on one player. But when that one player is a quarterback, the signal-caller is injured, and the depth chart is relatively weak behind him, you’d think it would have a significant impact.

That’s not the case for the Cincinnati Bengals, who are holding steady atop the Super Bowl LVIII futures board as one of the favorites. At +1000, the Bengals have the fourth-best odds to take home the Lombardi Trophy. With the AFC North stronger than ever, a daunting schedule ahead, and Joe Burrow’s health in question, Cincinnati could be on a collision course with disappointment. 

Cincinnati Bengals Betting Spotlight: The Joe Burrow Dilemma

Competitive Division

Parity is the word that best describes the AFC North. Entering the 2023 season, the Bengals have the best odds to win the division. Still, +150 doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence. Moreover, the three other teams priced at +470 or better, suggesting this will be the most tightly contested divisional battle in the NFL. 

The easiest playoff path comes by winning the division title and earning a bye into the Divisional Round. Certainly, Cincinnati’s Super Bowl odds would be negatively impacted if they don’t reign atop the AFC North.

Strength of Schedule

Ahead of every season, strength of schedule gives bettors an idea of what lies ahead for next year. In the Bengals’ case, the outlook is sub-optimal. The two-time defending AFC North Champions enter the campaign with the 12th-toughest schedule. 

On top of matching up against the NFC West, the Bengals also have intra-conference meetings with the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs. Presumably, teams they would also have to get past in the playoffs. Divisional contests notwithstanding, Cincy also has games against the Minnesota Vikings and AFC South. Traveling to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans isn’t the lay-up it once was. 

The Bengals’ win total is set at 11.5, and money is pouring in on the under. There may only be a weak correlation between win totals and Super Bowl odds. Still, it’s a worrisome sign that punters are taking their foot off the pedal when it comes to Cincinnati’s chances of winning games. 

The Joe Burrow Factor

The most concerning part of Cincinnati’s outlook is the injury to starting quarterback and blossoming superstar Joe Burrow. Inevitably, the Bengals will prioritize their long-term prospect rather than rushing Burrow back too soon, and risking re-injury. We can’t fault them for taking a conservative approach, but that puts the Bengals at an immediate deficit ahead of Week 1. 

The problem with having a high-caliber quarterback such as Burrow is that it becomes more difficult to recruit competent backups. Training camp will reveal the stand-in, but Trevor Siemian has nearly as many interceptions as starts, while Jake Browning and Reid Sinnett have never attempted a pass in the NFL. 

If Burrow’s out for an extended period, the quarterback issues compound the schedule and division concerns.

Priced Too High

Too many factors are working against the Bengals for them to be priced at +1000 in the Super Bowl futures market. The AFC North will be a bloodbath this year, and Cincinnati has a challenging schedule outside of its usual competitors. Questions surrounding Burrow’s health and an underwhelming depth chart beneath him amplify those concerns.

Pass on the current offering. Even if you love the Bengals, there will be a better futures price later in the season. If nothing else, rolling moneylines over week-to-week in the playoffs will yield a better return than the +1000 currently available.

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