MLS Top Goalscorer Betting Trends: Despite Long Odds, Messi Still the Man


Sep 22, 2023

Soccer aficionados and betting enthusiasts, the race for the MLS‘s top goal scorer title is heating up, and the betting landscape is as dynamic as ever! We’re seeing some significant shifts in the odds, and whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just looking for an exciting wager, it’s a great time to dive into these insights from BetMGM Sportsbook.

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Line Movement

  • Hany Mukhtar +1000, +350
  • Georgios Giakoumakis +700, +400
  • Denis Bouanga +2500, +400
  • Lionel Messi +4000, +3300

Lionel Messi of Inter Miami might’ve opened with distant odds of +4000, but he’s been seeing a surge in confidence. Last week’s odds of +1000 have dramatically lengthened to +3300 this week. Messi being held scoreless against TFC Wednesday and leaving the contest early certainly factor into his shifting odds. Still, a whopping 51.8% of tickets and 56.1% of the handle are currently riding on the Argentinian maestro. Messi leads the rest of the field by a wide margin in both categories.

Hany Mukhtar has also been turning heads. Having opened at +1000, he’s now at a compelling +350, with 11.9% of the tickets and 13.3% of the handle backing him. The Nashville SC attacking midfielder leads the league with 15 goals. A genuine contender, Mukhtar’s form and prowess in front of the goal are not to be underestimated.

Highest Ticket%:

  • Lionel Messi 51.8%
  • Hany Mukhtar 11.9%
  • Denis Bouanga 7.6%

Denis Bouanga, despite his initial +2500 odds, has slashed his way down to +400. LAFC‘s midfielder is right there, just one goal back of Mukhtar’s league lead. Bouanga has done his damage in two fewer games and is certainly not done yet. His ticket percentage stands at 7.6%, and he holds 4.4% of the handle.

Highest Handle%:

  • Lionel Messi 56.1%
  • Hany Mukhtar 13.3%
  • Georgios Giakoumakis 9.3%

Not far behind is Georgios Giakoumakis, who’s been relatively steady, moving from +700 to +400. The Atlanta United striker is also in that logjam, tied for second for the league lead in goals with 14. He might only have 3.7% of tickets, but a notable 9.3% of the handle suggests serious money backing his chances.

Luciano Acosta emerged from the shadows, having initially been off the board. He quickly shifted to +400 last week and currently sits at +500. FC Cincinnati’s attacking midfielder is the third man tied for second in the MLS with 14 goals. Although the tickets on Acosta are at a mere 0.9%, with the handle at 0.1%, there’s still a chance that he can pull this off.

Biggest Liabilities:

  • Lionel Messi
  • Hany Mukhtar
  • Georgios Giakoumakis

Lastly, Daniel Gazdag opened at +2000, widened to +2500, and has now settled at +1200. The Philadelphia Union midfielder is right behind the pack with 13 goals on the year. He’s a dark horse with 0.6% of tickets and 0.3% of the handle, but sitting just two goals back of the league lead with six games left, Gazdag might provide the most value.

With such a dynamic betting landscape and talent-rich field, the end of the MLS season’s top goal scorer race is set to be thrilling. As always, remember to wager responsibly and enjoy the beautiful game.

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Thumbnail photo via Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

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