Cardinals vs. Seahawks: Analytics Favor Seattle at Home

When the Arizona Cardinals soar into Lumen Field to challenge the Seattle Seahawks, there’s no doubt that NFL fans are in for a treat. With Seattle offering a spread of -8 and a total of 44.5, the betting odds suggest a balanced battle, but let’s dive deeper into the dynamics of this matchup.

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The Seahawks, under the helm of Geno Smith, seem poised for a showdown that could highlight the specific chinks in the Cardinals’ armor. Picture a jigsaw puzzle where you’re seeking the perfect fit, and suddenly, the Seattle offense seems tailor-made to exploit the Cardinals’ defensive weaknesses.

Here’s the breakdown:

• Play Action: The Seahawks rank third in their utilization of play action, a strategy that the Cardinals’ defense struggles mightily against, ranking 28th.
• Pressure on the QB: Geno Smith has felt the heat, with Seattle experiencing the fourth-highest pressure rate this season. Fortunately, they’re heading home after a lengthy away stint and up against the Cardinals, who rank last in pressuring the quarterback.
• Man vs. Zone Coverage: Geno has found it challenging against man coverage, ranking a dismal 32nd. But the Cardinals primarily utilize a zone coverage strategy, the fourth highest in the league, which plays directly into Smith’s strengths.
• Deep Passes: Seattle isn’t shy about launching the ball downfield, doing so at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. The Cardinals? Their defense is the leakiest against such deep passes, ranking last in EPA per attempt allowed on throws exceeding 15 yards.

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Such a setup suggests a game where the Seahawks can maintain aerial dominance, ensuring they aren’t playing catch-up. With the ability to maintain or even build a lead, this paves the way for a more balanced offensive approach, allowing them to leverage their ground game in the latter stages of the match.

Speaking of the ground game, Kenneth Walker is a name to watch. The Cardinals’ defensive vulnerability isn’t limited to the air. They’re the worst in the league, allowing explosive gains of three-plus yards before contact. With his ability to churn out significant gains, Walker is primed to exploit this weakness.

As the pieces of this NFL puzzle come together, it seems the Seahawks might have found their perfect fit against the Cardinals. Whether the Cardinals can adjust their strategies in time remains to be seen, but one thing’s for sure – Sunday’s game promises fireworks.

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