Warren Sharp Picks an Unconventional Brock Purdy Prop Play

In the dynamic realm of NFL prop betting, this weekend’s spotlight turns to Brock Purdy, the San Francisco 49ers‘ quarterback, as they welcome the Green Bay Packers. Renowned SportsGrid NFL analyst Warren Sharp offers a unique perspective on a prop bet that might not immediately spring to mind when considering Purdy’s playing style.

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Sharp begins, “So, ironically, you think of Brock, you don’t think of this, but the long ball with Brock, I’m going over his longest completion.” The specific bet Sharp is eyeing? Purdy’s longest completion over 39.5 yards. While this may seem lofty at first glance, Sharp’s analysis is grounded in compelling data.

“He has gone over this number from Week 3 to 16 in nine of 11 games where Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel were up.” Sharp reveals, underscoring Purdy’s surprising proficiency with long passes. The statistics are clear: Purdy has consistently delivered long completions when key players are on the field.

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Sharp then delves into the 49ers’ overall passing strategy, which supports his proposition. “The 49ers, surprisingly enough, when they do pass the ball on early downs in the first three quarters, have the fourth highest target depth in the NFL.” This approach aligns perfectly with the bet on Purdy’s ability to complete a long pass.

Furthermore, the opposition’s weaknesses add to the bet’s appeal. “The Packers defense has struggled against it,” Sharp notes, referencing Green Bay’s difficulties in defending deep passes. He contrasts this with the recent approach of the Dallas Cowboys against the Packers, suggesting a missed opportunity: “Dak Prescott, for whatever reason, Mike McCarthy big-brained out of throwing the ball deep on early downs in the first three quarters.”

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Sharp concludes with a prediction that cements his confidence in Purdy’s abilities: “I think Brock Purdy and Kyle Shanahan will have some success throwing the ball down the field and at least one catch of 40 plus yards.”

Sharp’s detailed analysis, which combines player performance, team strategies, and opposition vulnerabilities, makes a strong case for betting on Brock Purdy’s longest completion to be over 39.5 yards in the upcoming game. This prop bet offers a fascinating angle on Purdy’s capabilities and the 49ers’ offensive approach.

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