Should the Red Sox Shop High End or Bargain Basement?

On opening night of the NBA season, Doc Rivers kept his Celtics players late in the locker room following a win over the Cavaliers so that they would have to watch the Lakers receive their championship rings. You know, just to remind them.

Along similar lines, I'm guessing the Red Sox didn't need to catch the highlights of the Yankees' parade last Friday. Just the thought of once again looking up at their rivals in baseball's hierarchy should serve as motivation enough.

The truth of the matter this offseason is that the Red Sox will be competing with the Yankees. And it could get expensive. 

Hey, in order to be the best you have to beat the best. Or at least spend like them, right?

Much like last winter, there is talent to be had on the market, provided teams are willing to overpay. Of course, the Red Sox' recent business model has shied away from high-stakes bidding wars over free agents. They were hesitant to climb higher than New York last year and it cost them Mark Teixeira, though I'd argue that they can't be faulted for that after reportedly offering him a franchise-record deal. I mean, how much is too much? And furthermore, Teixeira is the exception — you're more likely to get burned spending John Henry's dollars on free agents. Theo Epstein learned that lesson with Julio Lugo and, though he publicly continues to argue otherwise, with J.D. Drew. (Drew earned $14 million in 2009 for a .113 average with the bases loaded and .213 with runners in scoring position. A bargain? Not so much.)

At the same time, the Red Sox have preached the importance of building a strong farm system. Not surprisingly, they have shown reluctance to part with their top prospects in blockbuster trades for front-line starters (see: Santana, Johan; Halladay, Roy) in each of the last two seasons. But then, you would've been pretty miffed at the sight of Jon Lester in a Twins uniform, no? And furthermore, deadline deals this season have thinned the farm crop.

The ultimate reality for the Red Sox is that they're going to have to give up a whole lot of something this offseason — be it prospects or piles of cash — in order to get back to where they want to be. After all, it's not like you can count on fleecing the Indians again — they don't have any good players left. (P.S., thanks for Victor!)

Here's a road map to follow the Red Sox through this hot-stove season:

Jason Bay Or Matt Holliday …
In the aftermath of his team's one-and-done in October, Epstein hinted that there might be a ceiling for re-signing Jason Bay. It's fair to place a ballpark figure for signing Bay in the 5-year, $15-$18 million-per-year range, though those numbers could always be driven up. And at anything more than that, Theo will have to question the value of a player who was undoubtedly productive in Boston (tops on the team in home runs and RBIs, second in OPS) but is not without his flaws. Is he worth every last dollar? Or should the Red Sox turn to Matt Holliday? He promises to be just as expensive, and is reportedly looking at the Mets and Yankees as his top two options. While the Red Sox will ask themselves if they can afford Bay this offseason, they know deep down that they can't afford to lose his production.

… or Roy Halladay?
There is no doubt that Roy Halladay would look strong at the front end of the Red Sox rotation — that much hasn't changed since Theo tried to deal for him in July. What has changed is what they'd be able to offer Toronto in a trade. There is no debating the fact that then-GM J.P. Ricciardi asked for everything short of Theo Epstein's dignity at the deadline. Now with a new general manager, it will be interesting to see what the Blue Jays want for their ace this offseason — or if they even consider moving him in the first place. For what it's worth, A.J. Burnett is said to be in Brian Cashman's ear pushing for Halladay in a Yankees uniform (the two are close friends). Reportedly, New York's focus remains on John Lackey (worth $80 million?) in free agency.

Felix Hernandez
M-a-k-e i-t h-a-p-p-e-n.

Yo, Adrian
Wanna bet new Padres GM Jed Hoyer is going to get a phone call from his old employer this offseason? In fact, it may have already happened. At 27, Adrian Gonzalez is coming off his first 40-home run season in San Diego, a team that can't afford to keep him. The smooth-swinging first baseman would fit well into the Red Sox lineup, though he might cost Mike Lowell his job. Adding Adrian would require moving Kevin Youkilis to third on a full-time basis, leaving Lowell the odd man out of that equation. But c'mon now, that math isn't exactly hard to figure out. Finding the right package of prospects to pull it off might be a little more complicated. But keep in mind that if anyone knows the Red Sox farm system, it's Hoyer.

In Short
The Red Sox declined the $6 million dollar option on shortstop Alex Gonzalez, though the team could always bring him back in 2010 for less money. This is a huge hole, and Gonzo at the very least answers the defensive end of that equation. Meanwhile, Jed Lowrie is left to almost reprove himself after injuries robbed him of a shot to start at short this past season. Hmm … wonder what it would take to get Hanley Ramirez back? Uh, never mind.

Rolling the Dice
Having sunk too many millions into Daisuke Matsuzaka, the Red Sox can't simply give up on him. Not yet, at least. But their displeasure with his attitude in 2009 was among baseball's worst kept secrets. Ultimately, they need Dice-K to take pitching for them as seriously as he does taking the mound for Japan in the WBC every three years.

Do You Really Want to Go There?
Theo, manager Terry Francona and company will be tested with a series of uncomfortable decisions this offseason. In declining Jason Varitek's $5 million option, they've already dealt with a big one. NESN has already reported that the captain will be back by virtue of his $3 million player option for 2010, but Epstein made it clear on Monday that he'd return as the backup to Victor Martinez. 

Among the other issues, David Ortiz is in the final year of his deal. And while Tito mentioned in October that more than a few of us owe Papi an apology after he turned around his two-month spring slump, the Red Sox just can't afford another early season lag from their DH. 

Lastly, it could be (and has been) argued that Boston's biggest chip this offseason is closer Jonathan Papelbon. His value, despite blowing the final game of the season in the ALDS, is sky high. And his asking price in 2011 will probably be, too. Figuring Papelbon will be difficult to sign, the Red Sox could explore trading him now. Granted, it would be a brazen move, but with Daniel Bard appearing to have the makeup of a closer, moving Papelbon could prove to be pretty savvy.  The question is, if Bard isn't ready, could you deal with Billy Wagner in the ninth for a season?

GM meetings start this week in Chicago. Let the games begin.