Miami Dolphins’ Schedule A Much Bigger Problem Than Preseason-Opener Performance

It's rare that a team wins a football game, and then is described in the headlines as "struggling" and "lackluster."

The Miami Dolphins achieved exactly that with their 10-7 win over in-state rivals Tampa Bay.

The description of the Buccaneers' performance in the St. Petersburg Times headline: "Strong."

What a difference expectations can make, but should fans of the Dolphins really believe that their team has a chance to be something special?

The acquisitions of Brandon Marshall and Karlos Dansby were major upgrades. Marshall made both Jay Cutler and Kyle Orton look much better than they have without him, so he will clearly help Chad Henne mature. His two drops in his Dolphins debut mean nothing. He is in the Randy Moss, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald echelon of the league's best wide receivers.

Dansy, simply put, is a play-maker, and adding such to a team that was mediocre in forcing turnovers last year will make a good defense better.

If Ronnie Brown can be healthy — a question that never goes away — the team will have major upside.

The even bigger question that Miami faces every season, though, remains: Can they win in cold weather? They'll need to, given that their two most pivotal games will be in December at the new Meadowlands against the Jets, and in January at Gillette Stadium against the Patriots.

Their schedule could have been even colder, as they face both the NFC North and the AFC North, but their games at Cincinnati, at Baltimore and at Green Bay, in addition to their game in Buffalo, all happen before winter really sets in.

While the teams they play in 2010 went just 128-128 last season, that number is deceiving. The Dolphins have one of the league's toughest schedules. They may have Detroit and Cleveland at home, plus two Bills games, but their other 12 contests couldn't be tougher.

With the AFC North as tight as it appears it will be, games against playoff teams Cincinnati and Baltimore, as well as Pittsburgh (with Big Ben) will be uphill battles.

The Patriots, whom the Dolphins have given trouble in recent years, are still the Patriots, and the Jets look to be much better than they were in 2009. The Bears, also on the 2010 to-do list, are a true NFC sleeper, and will be tough — even in Miami. Their NFC North rivals, Green Bay and Minnesota, are two of the league's elite teams.

Miami's reward for their third-place finish won't be much help either. Tennessee was among the league's best in 2008-09, and they could again be a playoff team in 2010-11. Oakland, while no great team, has a sneaky-good defense and will be less of a disaster on offense with Jason Campbell.

All of this adds up to about 5-5 outside of the AFC East, and if you give the Fins the Buffalo games, they'll be sitting at 7-5 with only the four Jets and Pats games outstanding. 9-7 usually doesn't mean playoffs in the AFC, so Miami really will have to win a frigid, late-season division game against one of their two biggest rivals to get to 10-6 — if they can beat both teams at home, too.

In 2009, the team played its final five games in warm climates and still went 2-3, letting a playoff spot slip away. They're going to have to do it the hard way in 2010.

Fins fans should discount their ugly opener as nothing more than the result of a monsoon and growing pains, and they are right to think that their team is good. Even so, Sportsbook.com sets their bar at 8.5 wins for the season because of who they play.

Like in 2008, when they won two cold-weather road games down the stretch, Tony Sparano's bunch is going to have to overachieve to prove the smart money wrong.