Week 3 NFL Picks Acknowledge Colts Are Still Dangerous, Cowboys Are in Trouble

It's only two weeks into the season, but boy do we know a lot about these teams.

First and foremost, we know that the Dallas Cowboys have problems. When the team plays at Houston this Sunday against the 2-0 Texans, the season could very well hang in the balance.

That Texans team, by the way, was made to look even better on Sunday night when the Colts stomped all over the Giants on national television. Having beaten the Colts in grand fashion the week before, the Texans win is all the more impressive.

Still, it's September, so let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. There are still plenty of opportunities to completely misread some teams, so the "Ridiculous Quote From Last Week's Picks" (RQFLWP) feature makes is triumphant return to this week's weeks. Hopefully, it will be the grand finale. Hopefully.

(Home team in caps)

KANSAS CITY (+3) over San Francisco
Honestly, I don't even want to pick the Chiefs here, but Romeo Crennel is forcing me to. Consider that Matt Cassel is 26-for-50 for 244 yards, one touchdown and two picks, and consider that the Chiefs rank 30th in yards … and then remember that they're 2-0.

The Niners looked dangerous on Monday night — both to their opponent and themselves — and they are facing the grim reality of an 0-3 start. All signs point to picking the Niners. All signs except for one. Romeo.

Detroit (+11.5) over MINNESOTA
I really think the Vikings have problems. Their biggest? Abandoning Adrian Peterson.

For two straight weeks, they've handed the ball to their workhorse, and he's done the job. Then, for no particular reason, they stop. Here's to hoping Brad Childress doesn't catch on for another week.

Still, don't think I'm happy picking the Lions after the stunt they pulled last week, closing an 18-point gap to three points after just about everyone had accepted the fact that Philly was going to cover the 4.5-point spread. That was nice.

RQFLWP: "Now that [Brett Favre] has actually been at practice, he might be able to run the offense a bit better."

Note: Favre, you might have noticed, finished with three picks and no touchdowns. Solid call by me.

NEW ENGLAND (-14) over Buffalo
I see this game, and I see this spread, and I'm immediately reminded of last year's season opener, when it took a miracle Tom Brady comeback and a bonehead Leodis McKelvin fumble for the Patriots to squeak out a win against a team that they always dominate.

Still, it's bad business to start thinking like that. Go with the Pats, and don't think about it until Monday afternoon.

RQFLWP: "After seeing the Jets offense on Monday, I feel comfortable that the Pats can keep the Jets in check."

Note: Mark Sanchez's three touchdowns disagree with me.

Atlanta (+4) over NEW ORLEANS
For a team as talented as New Orleans to look so … average over the first two weeks makes this one that much harder. The fact that the Saints are giving up 4.8 yards per run and that Jason Snelling and Michael Turner combined for 204 yards on the ground last week makes it a little easier.

RQFLWP: "Don't think I feel comfortable about [the Falcons covering] seven points here."

Note: Falcons won by 34 points. No big deal.

Tennessee (+3) over NEW YORK GIANTS
The Giants are an absolute mess. As if getting demolished on Sunday night wasn't bad enough, Brandon Jacobs had to throw his helmet at some dork in the stands and then Antrel Rolle had to complain about things that no NFL player has ever complained about.

I don't think the Titans are as good as the team that beat the Raiders by 25 points, but they're not as bad as the team that mustered just 11 points against the Steelers. By my math, I think that puts them about a field goal better than the Giants.

Pittsburgh (-2.5) over TAMPA BAY
True, I'm actually the third-string quarterback for the Steelers in this game, but that doesn't matter. The Bucs are 2-0, but they're gaining just 280.5 yards per game. The Steelers are sixth in the league on defense, allowing just 266.5 yards per game. They might lead the league after Sunday.

Cincinnati (-3) over CAROLINA
Hey, Carolina. You stink.

All right, I feel better now.

RQFLWP: "The Panthers are better than that 13-point loss in New York."

Note: So much better that they'd lose by — yup, you guessed it — 13 points to the Buccaneers.

Cleveland (+10.5) over BALTIMORE
OK, hear me out.

The Browns are 0-2, but they've lost those two games by a combined five points. The Ravens won by a single point in Week 1 and lost 15-10 last week. I hate to even consider Cleveland for anything ever, but I have to. This will be the one, though, that makes me sweat the most.

RQFLWP: "When Joe Flacco's offense lines up against the Bengals' D instead of that of the Jets, it will be like Christmas came early."

Note: Flacco threw for 154 yards and four picks. Nice.

Dallas (+3) over HOUSTON
When I put together a list of the top 10 games of the NFL season, this one made the cut. My reasoning: "If either Dallas or Houston loses a game in Weeks 1 or 2, this early-season game could take on a must-win feel."

With the Cowboys, you can take that statement and multiply it by a million, and that's what's on the line this week. And while the Cowboys have been rough on the eyes, their offense has racked up nearly 400 yards per game. And the Texans, despite their 2-0 record, have allowed an incredible 442 yards per game — second-worst in the league.

Records can be deceptive, and sometimes the stats tell the better story. I'm throwing perceptions out the window and going with the numbers, at least for this game.

Washington (-3.5) over ST. LOUIS
The Redskins are OK. The Rams are OK, too. I think, though, that the Redskins are OKer than the Rams. I'm pretty sure.

(Tell me where you'll find better NFL analysis than that.)

Philadelphia (-3.5) over JACKSONVILLE
Does anybody know who the quarterback of the Eagles is going to be on Sunday? I've been trying to find information on it, but no local or national media seem to be covering it. Weird.

Oh well. I'll pick the team that didn't turn the ball over six times last week.

RQFLWP: "And if you think David Garrard can replicate his three-touchdown performance, I've got a bag of moldy bread to sell you."

Note: Garrard threw four interceptions, so that one proved to be right. I'm just mentioning it to let you know that the offer still stands.

Indianapolis (-5.5) over DENVER
Peyton Manning's performance on Sunday is enough to put the Colts back in "don't ever bet against them with a spread that's less than a touchdown" territory.

Oakland (+4.5) over ARIZONA
Gross. Just when you think the NFL is great, you are reminded that games like this are happening.

I'll take Oakland because:

A.) The defense has been OK.

B.) Rolando McClain is dropping suplexes like it's no big deal. (Best part of that video: The Raiders fans love it. They don't even care about the 15-yard penalty. Sometimes I wish I was from Oakland. Not usually, but sometimes.)

SEATTLE (+5.5) over San Diego
Pete Carroll's an emotional guy, so maybe his team needs the emotion that comes with playing at home. That, and you can only take so many road favorites in one week.

MIAMI (-2) over New York Jets
There's no way this Braylon Edwards fiasco doesn't distract the Jets, right? I mean, I know they're the kings of distraction, but this is a bit over the top, isn't it? Isn't it?!

CHICAGO (+3) over Green Bay
I really like Green Bay this year, just like seemingly everyone else in the world, but I like da Bears in an ever-so-slight upset at home.

Really, you've got two good all-around teams, you've got Jay Cutler playing out of his mind, and you've got a Bears defense playing at least a little bit like a Bears defense should. Good enough for me.

Last week: 7-8-1
Season: 13-18-1