Week 9 NFL Picks Jumping Aboard Patriots Train and Laughing at Cowboys’ Misery

Imagine for a moment that you're a college student who decided to study abroad this semester. You've been so busy learning a new language and culture that you haven't been able to keep up with the NFL as much as you normally do. Would you believe what's gone on if someone told you?

For one, Randy Moss got traded, then dumped, then signed, all within a month's span.

The Cowboys, a team thought to be a favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl in Dallas, is 1-6, and Jon Kitna is the quarterback.

Brett Favre has a 69.8 quarterback rating, better only than Derek Anderson and Matt Moore.

The Raiders and Chiefs will be meeting in Week 9 to battle for supremacy in the AFC West. The Broncos and Chargers look to be outside contenders at best.

Even last week alone had its surprises:

• David Garrard was almost perfect in Cowboys Stadium, completing 17 of 21 passes for 260 yards and four touchdowns.
• The winless Bills took the Chiefs through a full 15 minutes of overtime, only to lose on a Ryan Succop field goal.
• Donovan McNabb got benched by Mike Shanahan because he lacked the "cardiovascular endurance" to run the two-minute drill. The Skins then brought in JaMarcus Russell, renowned fitness enthusiast, for a workout.
• The 49ers and Broncos played in England, and though there were probably people in the stadium, there might not have been more than a dozen people watching back in the States.

As always, every week provides another reminder why football is king and sucks up 12-15 hours of your life every week.

Now, trying to predict next week's surprises …

(Home team in caps.)

Chicago (-3) over BUFFALO
Poor Buffalo. Why they picked up Shawne Merriman is beyond me. At least there are no reality TV starlets living in upstate New York to distract him, I guess.

Oh, and by the way, after a torrid start to the year that qas quickly extinguished by the Giants' D-line, Jay Cutler is in for a big rebound week. That's mostly because DeAngelo Hall doesn't play for the Bills.

Tampa Bay (+8.5) over ATLANTA
Hmm … Atlanta is 5-2, but does it count when your five wins are against teams that are a combined 14-23? Tampa Bay is also 5-2, but again, does it count when your five wins are against teams that are a combined 12-24?

The answer is no, it doesn't count. Sure, it counts in the standings for now, but when you've got two teams that aren't all that great, 8.5 points is a very good thing.

The one bit of concern here is that the Bucs' two losses came via blowouts, but this divisional game to determine first place has to be a close one. I think. Right? Let's move on.

New England (-4.5) over CLEVELAND
I got nervous that this line would swing too far in the Patriots' favor. It seems just right, though.

And after the Browns pulled out every trick in the book against the Saints, it'll be tough for them to surprise the Patriots this weekend. Plus, any time you've got a rookie quarterback going up against a Bill Belichick defense, it generally doesn't end well for the rookie.

New York Jets (-4) over DETROIT
The Lions have been good in their own house (2-1 record, outscoring opponents 113-66), but while I may not believe the Jets are good enough to win the Super Bowl, they're good enough not to embarrass themselves in consecutive weeks.

(Oh, and despite those cool home numbers, the Lions are 0-4 on the road — meaning they're not a very stellar football team.)

Ridiculous Quote From Last Week's Picks: "There's an old NFL rule that says the Lions are never really a favorite. It's just a trick."

Note: Ndamukong Suh did a touchdown dance right in my face for saying this.

MINNESOTA (-9) over Arizona
Yikes! Talk about two teams that you don't expect to win every week.

Let's go with … Adrian Peterson against a defense that allows 143.1 rushing yards per game, bad enough for 29th in a 32-team league. While the Cardinals won't be able to catch Buffalo's incredible mark of 188.7 rush yards allowed per game, they could leapfrog Tampa Bay and Denver after Peterson goes off for about 200 yards and three touchdowns on Sunday.

It helps that the Cardinals are also an abysmal road team, going 1-3 and getting outscored 117-44 in the process.

You would have hoped that with all the Brad Childress/Brett Favre/Randy Moss/upset team caterer drama that the line might be a little tighter, but Arizona is just that bad.

CAROLINA (+6.5) over New Orleans
To be honest with you, I miss last year, when you could pick the Saints every week and not worry about it. This year, even when they're playing a 1-6 Panthers team that has a minus-65 point differential, ranks dead least in offense, you have to be a little nervous taking the Super Bowl champs.

That's compounded with the fact that the Saints barely edged the Panthers in the Superdome just five weeks ago, they rank 29th in rushing yards per game, Drew Brees is tied for the league lead in interceptions, and they don't seem to be able to put together a solid 60-minute effort, let alone string together consecutive seven-plus-point victories.

Miami (+5.5) over BALTIMORE
The Ravens fell behind the Bills by a thousand points, despite getting all rah-rah about how good they are after they lost to the Patriots. Yeah, they eventually won, but when you need overtime against the Bills, it might hurt more than a loss.

San Diego (-2.5) over HOUSTON
Norv Turner is crying! Antonio Gates is catching touchdowns! Phil Rivers is cursing! The midseason surge for the Chargers is on!

New York Giants (-6.5) over SEATTLE
One of my favorite moments in NFL history came when the Giants went to Seattle in 2005. It came in the form of a premature celebration by Jeremy Shockey, and thankfully, some saint captured it to live forever on the Internet.

At this point, if you can't take the Giants to win by a touchdown on the road, the NFC might as well just concede the Super Bowl right now. The fact that the Seahawks allowed eight Raiders sacks last week and will be facing a rested Giants D-line that loves sacks makes this easier.

Kansas City (+2.5) over OAKLAND
At some point, whether it be this week, next week, next year or next decade, I'm going to have to accept the fact that I'll have to pick the Raiders at some point.

That will be long after my well-documented love of Romeo Crennel's defensive schemes wanes, and that's not happening anytime soon.

RQFLWP: "I've been raised to believe it is unlikely for the Raiders to play well for two consecutive weeks. The fact that they've won two straight games just once in the past two-plus season helps drive that belief home."

Note: Seriously, as long as Al Davis is hovering somewhere in the stadium, it's going to take some time for me to come around on this one.

PHILADELPHIA (-3) over Indianapolis
I was ultra-nervous with picking Indy last week, with Dallas Clark gone for the season. When you watch Peyton Manning and the Colts play, you sit in complete amazement and befuddlement as Clark would always seem to find a 20-yard bubble of free space, catch the ball in stride and pick up 45 yards in the matter of a few seconds.

Without Clark, I thought perhaps Manning would be a bit more mortal.

Well, turns out, some guy named Jacob Tamme — a guy with six career receptions before Monday night's game — can do a decent Dallas Clark impression, to the tune of six catches, 64 yards and a touchdown.

Yet, that was at home on national TV, facing Matt Schaub. This week, they'll be facing Michael Vick, who's going to cause problems for Indy's defense (17th in the league), they're fresh out of running backs and they're on a short week. Philly's not a bad pick.

GREEN BAY (-8) over Dallas
Last week, Jerry Jones came out and said he was embarrassed. Well, Jerry, enjoy the national spotlight this week!

(It can't go without mention that Jones' only reason for not firing Wade Phillips was that there's no data to suggest a coaching change will help. If only we could all have such support from our bosses.)

Pittsburgh (-4.5) over Cincinnati
I just hope, after the Bengals implode on Monday night, that Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco aren't so bummed out that they can't film The T.Ocho Show on Tuesday night. 'Twould be such a tragedy.

Last week: 8-5
Season: 58-56-3