How Conor McGregor Can Shock World, Actually Beat Floyd Mayweather Jr.

Conor McGregor’s most obvious disadvantage might actually work in his favor.

Let’s be real here, the likely outcome for Saturday night’s cross-sport superfight at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas is a convincing win for Floyd Mayweather Jr., who’s looking to improve to 50-0. McGregor is a decorated mixed martial arts fighter, winning titles in two UFC divisions, but he’s entering his first professional boxing match, and despite what The Notorious and his supporters might tell you, the squared circle is a far different place than the octagon.

That’s not to say one’s more difficult or dangerous than the other. It’s simply a fact that while some skills undoubtedly transfer from one environment to the next, there also are idiosyncrasies that Mayweather will be cognizant of while inside the boxing ring that will fly right over McGregor’s head. The opposite could be said if the fight took place in a cage, where McGregor would have his finger on the pulse and Mayweather would be forced to learn on the go.

So, how might McGregor compensate for this inexperience or, better yet, use it to his advantage? Well, for one, McGregor’s greenness limits how much Mayweather can prepare for his upcoming opponent. After all, it’s not like there’s a ton of film out there on McGregor, other than his MMA fights, which makes it difficult for Mayweather to replicate what exactly he’ll see when the first bell rings this Saturday.

Think of it like this: There’s been a whole bunch of instances of a young player earning a call-up to Major League Baseball and subsequently going on an impressive hot streak to begin his career at the next level. In most cases, the production is unsustainable and some regression occurs in short order, but there’s still that window in which there’s limited information available to opposing pitchers. And until the book gets out on the hot-hitting newcomer and opponents learn more about his tendencies, how to approach him, etc., there’s going to be that element of the unknown, making each at-bat difficult to navigate for even the best opposing pitchers.

In other words, what’s to stop McGregor from flashing a unique offensive attack and flustering Mayweather in the early rounds, much like when Boston Red Sox rookie Rafael Devers got the best of perennial All-Star Aroldis Chapman a few weeks ago by launching a game-tying home run off the New York Yankees closer? If you think we’re dealing with apples to oranges, that’s fair, but keep in mind, they’re both fruits. And while the transition from MMA to boxing is far more radical than simply progressing to the next level in baseball, or within any sport for that matter, there’s still that feeling-out stage, which benefits the free-wheeling novice as much as anyone.

You see, while Mayweather has been around the block, defeating some of boxing’s best en route to tying Rocky Marciano’s 49-0 record, he’s never faced anyone quite like McGregor; something the UFC champ has pointed out, quite confidently, on several occasions over the last few months. This might not mean much — Mayweather has made in-ring adjustments in the past and lived to tell about it — or it could be the single largest contributing factor in the most shocking upset in combat sports history.

Thumbnail photo via Tom Szczerbowski/USA TODAY Sports Images