Red Sox Mock Draft Roundup: Experts Predict Boston’s First-Round Pick

The Boston Red Sox own only one selection in the first 88 picks of the 2020 Major League Baseball amateur draft, so Chaim Bloom and Co. must choose wisely Wednesday night at No. 17 overall.

This year’s draft is unique for every team in that it’ll consist of just five rounds — instead of the usual 40 — but the Red Sox are in an especially precarious position thanks to losing their second-round pick as punishment stemming from MLB’s investigation into allegations Boston illegally stole signs in 2018.

That said, we’re not here to make excuses for the Red Sox — or anyone else, for that matter. Instead, let’s focus on who the Red Sox could land at No. 17, because it might change the complexion of their farm system, which needs a boost after several trades involving notable prospects in recent years.

Many pundits expect the Red Sox to choose a pitcher in Bloom’s first draft as Boston’s chief baseball officer. Not only is there an organizational need for power arms, but this year’s class is deep in that area, with double-digit college pitchers and at least three high school pitchers mentioned as first-round possibilities.

Of course, that doesn’t mean the Red Sox will go that route, as there also are a few position players who might catch Boston’s eye if they drop to No. 17. Ultimately, it’ll probably come down to who’s still on the board.

After reviewing several mock drafts from those seemingly with a firm grasp on this year’s class, one player keeps surfacing in connection with the Red Sox. Still, he’s not the only name. Let’s see what the experts say.

More MLB Draft: Four Pitchers Red Sox Could Pick At No. 17

Keith Law, The Athletic (June 10): Patrick Bailey, C, North Carolina State
I’d heard they were heavy on Crow-Armstrong, but if he’s gone they’d go for the best college bat here — probably Bailey.

Kiley McDaniel, ESPN.com (June 10): Mick Abel, RHP, Jesuit High School (Oregon)
The Red Sox are casting a wide net and are specifically being aggressive with prep players, more than most other clubs. Abel is the consensus top prep arm and getting him at 17 is both a coup and also a bad sign for other prep arms. This is the high-water mark for Tanner Witt. Sabato has also drawn interest.

Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com (June 10): Mick Abel, RHP, Jesuit High School (Oregon)
There’s still a feeling that one of the top high school arms could go higher than this, but this is a landing spot for the tall right-hander who keeps coming up in conversations. This could also be a landing spot for fellow prep right-hander Jared Kelley from Texas or Illinois high school shortstop Ed Howard.

Jim Callis, MLB.com (June 10): Mick Abel, RHP, Jesuit High School (Oregon)
Most teams believe the Red Sox, who lost their second-round pick as a punishment for sign stealing, will pursue maximum upside with their first-rounder. They’ve been linked to mostly high schoolers, which could lead them to the high school arms, Howard or Crow-Armstrong.

Mike Axisa, CBS Sports (June 9): Mick Abel, RHP, Jesuit High School (Oregon)
Even though they were stripped of their second-round pick as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal and have the fifth smallest bonus pool, the Red Sox are prioritizing upside with this pick. Abel could be a top 10 pick on talent, though his high school did not play any games prior to the shutdown, so it’s been a while since teams have seen him in game action. I think the Red Sox would prefer a top high school hitter over a pitcher here, making California prep outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong a possibility with Hassell and Hendrick (and Veen) off the board. Our R.J. Anderson ranked Abel as the No. 7 prospect in the draft class.

Eric Longenhagen, FanGraphs (June 8): Garrett Crochet, LHP, Tennessee
Crochet is falling because of injury and makeup concerns but his stuff is incredible, a line I copied and pasted from Jay Groome’s 2016 report.

Mason McRae, Prospects 365 (June 8): Mick Abel, RHP, Jesuit High School (Oregon)
… Abel’s uber-projectable frame and electric arm have been all over Twitter of late, with recent bullpens showing a more refined feel for his three pitches. Abel flashes two plus-pitches, the better being a steep curveball that tunnels well with his fastball. He’ll occasionally drop in a good-looking changeup that displays fade, but the pitch hasn’t missed many bats as of yet. No pitcher in this class holds more upside than Abel, and his combination of size and stuff are the ideal traits professional organizations are prioritizing currently.

Ian Smith, Prospects 365 (June 7): Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Harvard-Westlake School (California)
Considering the first sixteen picks of this mock, the Red Sox will almost certainly be torn between two preps, one being an arm and another being their pick here in PCA. Let’s start with plus speed and defensive skills that could someday compete for Gold Gloves in center field. Crow-Armstrong possesses a silky-smooth, left-handed bat with a great ability to find the barrel for current gap power, but youth and projection show he could grow into at least above average raw power.

More MLB Draft: Five Position Players Red Sox Could Pick At No. 17