Are Celtics Better Off Landing Second Seed In NBA Playoffs?
The East's top spot is still in play, but becoming unlikely
There remains a slim chance the Boston Celtics catch the Milwaukee Bucks for the top seed in the Eastern Conference entering the NBA playoffs. But is that actually the best-case scenario for the Green?
After sitting in the driver’s seat for the first three quarters of the season, an early-March slump caused the Celtics to cough up their advantage in the East as the Bucks overtook them for the top spot. Boston actually was flirting with the third seed for a bit, but a bounce-back stretch has propelled the C’s to five wins in their last six games. They dismantled opponents in the process, too, with the most notable being the Bucks themselves.
As of Monday, the magic number for the Celtics to earn the No. 1 seed is six. Any combination of six Celtics wins or Bucks losses gets Boston there though there are merely four games left in the regular season. It’s a slim chance, depicted as DraftKings Sportsbook has the Bucks -1200 to claim the top spot Monday.
But could the Celtics missing out on No. 1 actually could benefit them down the road?
The obvious disclaimer: Boston would not hold home-court advantage throughout the conference playoffs should it finish second. Milwaukee would. But you have to get there first, right? And the C’s might have an easier path to the Eastern Conference Finals should they finish second as opposed to first.
It’s based on how the Celtics match up with others, and it really comes down to Boston’s potential second-round matchup against either the Philadelphia 76ers or Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavaliers’ magic number for the fourth seed is one with the Sixers likely to finish third.
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The Celtics’ postseason path would start with the No. 7 seed, whoever emerges from the NBA Play-In Tournament. As it currently stands, that would mean the winner of a matchup between the Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks, although the Toronto Raptors and Chicago Bulls likely will be among those competing in the play-in, too.
Upon advancing through the first round, Boston almost certainly would face Philadelphia. The Celtics have beaten the Sixers all three times they’ve played this season and while Joel Embiid presents a challenge, we’ve seen in recent years how the Green continue to have Philadelphia’s number. It likely would grant them the chance to play the winner of Bucks-Cavaliers in the conference finals.
On the other hand, if the Celtics earn the top seed, they’d likely face the Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round. Cleveland, which owns the second-best point differential in the league, defeated Boston three of the four times this season, all three in overtime. The backcourt combination of Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland has given the Celtics trouble and Cleveland continues to get healthier. The Cavs have won seven of their last 10 games. The winner of that series likely would face the winner of Bucks-76ers.
There’s a realistic chance the Bucks and Celtics each advance to the Eastern Conference Finals regardless of who finishes first and who finishes second. However, Boston’s journey to that point seemingly could be easier if they have to play the 76ers instead of the Cavaliers, thus making the second seed arguably a better position.
And one last thing to keep in mind: Boston didn’t have home-court advantage in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals but still went into Miami and earned a series-clinching victory against the Heat.
The NBA regular season concludes Sunday with the playoffs set to start April 15.
