Red Sox Weekend Warmup: Can Boston Overcome Crushing Astros Sweep?

It’s been a tough week for the Boston Red Sox, to say the least.

They entered last weekend with another chance to prove themselves, faced with a three-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers followed by a three-game set against the Houston Astros — both at Fenway Park.

Boston went 1-5 in that stretch, culminating with a three-game sweep versus Houston that Red Sox president and CEO Sam Kennedy acknowledged Thursday was the “low point” of the club’s season.

Now, as the calendar flips to September, it’s fair to question whether the Red Sox are toast. They’re hanging on by a thread in the American League wild-card race, 6 1/2 games back of the third spot with 28 games remaining on their schedule. It’ll take an impressive final month for Boston to reach the postseason, with FanGraphs giving the Red Sox a 4.7% chance as of Thursday.

Fortunately for the Red Sox, their September takeoff comes with a favorable runway, as they’ll face the Kansas City Royals for three games at Kauffman Stadium this weekend. KC has the second-worst record in Major League Baseball (41-94) — only the Oakland Athletics are worse (39-95) — and the Red Sox already took three of four from the Royals in early August.

The competition ramps up from there, of course, with Boston’s ensuing 13 games coming against AL East opponents. The Red Sox also have three games apiece against the Texas Rangers and Chicago White Sox in what is a division-heavy September for Boston.

Do the Red Sox have one last playoff push in them? It’s hard to envision as Boston stumbles into the final month of the 2023 campaign mired in a four-game losing streak. But crazier things have happened — right?

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Red Sox odds (Aug. 31)*
To win World Series: +21000
To win American League: +10000
To win AL East: +50000
To make playoffs: +1700

We’re talking long shots here. Even the Red Sox’s odds to crack the playoffs have fallen to 17-1, which speaks to the unlikelihood of Boston accomplishing the feat despite still kinda being within striking distance of a wild-card spot.

One major problem for the Red Sox, aside from their recent play: They have a difficult remaining schedule. Also, they’re not just 6 1/2 games back of the final wild-card spot. They also need to leapfrog the Toronto Blue Jays, who entered Thursday 2 1/2 games behind the Rangers for that spot.

*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Probable pitchers
— Friday, Sept. 1 (8:10 p.m. at Royals): James Paxton, LHP (7-4, 3.99 ERA) vs. Jordan Lyles, RHP (3-15, 6.51 ERA)

— Saturday, Sept. 2 (7:10 p.m. at Royals): Tanner Houck, RHP (3-8, 4.93 ERA) vs. TBD

— Sunday, Sept. 3 (2:10 p.m. at Royals): Chris Sale, LHP (5-3, 4.75 ERA) vs. TBD

Storylines to watch
1. Ceddanne Rafaela has arrived.
Rafaela, who made his MLB debut this week, will stick with the Red Sox as they head to Kansas City. The 22-year-old went 2-for-5 with a double, an RBI and a run scored in two games against Houston. He’s the Red Sox’s No. 3 prospect, per MLB Pipeline, and potentially a big part of their future. That “future” could start now as Boston looks for a spark. And it’ll be interesting to see how Red Sox manager Alex Cora deploys Rafaela, who’s capable of providing elite defense both in the infield and the outfield.

2. Wilyer Abreu has arrived, as well.
Abreu, the Red Sox’s No. 17 prospect, doesn’t quite carry the same hype as Rafaela. But he evidently showed enough in his first taste of the majors that he, too, is sticking with Boston for the time being. The Red Sox activated Abreu from the paternity list Thursday, with David Hamilton being optioned to Triple-A Worcester. Abreu, acquired in last season’s trade that sent Christian Vázquez (now of the Minnesota Twins) to the Astros, tore up Triple-A before his recent MLB promotion. The 24-year-old outfielder then went 6-for-17 with a home run, two doubles and five RBIs in his first five games with Boston.

3. Anything left in the tank?
It sure feels like Boston’s pitching staff is running on empty right now. The recent results have been poor — the Red Sox have surrendered double-digit hits in seven of their last eight games — and the starters’ inability to work deep into games finally seems to be catching up with an overworked bullpen. Managing pitch counts, innings and things of that nature could be a chore for Cora from here on out.