How Jets-Browns Result Improved Patriots’ Outlook For NFL Draft

The Patriots’ hopes for a top pick in the 2024 NFL Draft received a boost Thursday night.

The Cleveland Browns’ convincing home victory over the New York Jets trimmed the strength-of-schedule gap between New England and the Commanders. Strength of schedule is the first draft-order tiebreaker, with the team with the lower opponents’ winning percentage receiving the higher pick.

Entering Thursday, the 4-11 Commanders held a .518-.522 SOS edge over the 4-11 Patriots, who still are slotted one spot behind Washington at No. 4 in the draft order. But while Cleveland’s victory lowered the SOS for Washington, which played the Jets last weekend, it lowered New England’s even more because New York counts twice on the Patriots’ schedule.

Here’s the updated top 10 via Tankathon, which includes remaining scheduled opponents in its SOS rankings:

1. Chicago Bears, via 2-13 Carolina Panthers (.522 SOS)
2. Arizona Cardinals, 3-12 (.562 SOS)
3. Washington Commanders, 4-11 (.516 SOS)
4. New England Patriots, 4-11 (.518 SOS)
5. New York Giants, 5-10 (.512 SOS)
6. Los Angeles Chargers, 5-10 (.523 SOS)
7. Tennessee Titans, 5-10 (.527 SOS)
8. New York Jets, 6-10 (.516 SOS)
9. Chicago Bears, 6-9 (.469 SOS)
10. Atlanta Falcons, 7-8 (.418 SOS)

As you can see, the SOS gap between New England and Washington is negligible. If the Patriots lose their two remaining games (at Buffalo Bills; vs. Jets), there’s a realistic chance of them finishing with a top-three pick. Moreover, New England would leapfrog the Commanders, if only temporarily, should the Dallas Cowboys beat the Detroit Lions on Thursday night.

Here are some other ramifications from Jets-Browns:

— The Patriots previously were tied with the Panthers in SOS but now hold a slight edge. The No. 1 pick still is on the table, but Carolina would need to win its final two games.

— The SOS gap between the Patriots and Cardinals grew even wider. New England basically is guaranteed to finish ahead of Arizona if the two teams finish with the same record.

— New England’s SOS edges over the Chargers and Titans both grew, which could come in handy if the Patriots win one of their final two games.

— The SOS gap between the Patriots and Giants — previously .514-.522 in favor of New York — narrowed ever so slightly. New York still is the five-win team that Patriots fans should fear the most, as the Giants might look to draft a quarterback.

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Got all that?

At the end of the day, it’s this simple for the Patriots: They’re guaranteed a top-four pick if they lose out, and a top-three pick if the Cardinals win a game. Also, if New England loses just one of its final two contests, it still is guaranteed to finish no lower than seventh in the draft order.

Thankfully, we’ll all be able to put our pencils down and stop this draft math in just over a week.