Patriots Rooting Guide: Best Week 15 Results For Draft Positioning

The Patriots are playing out the string in a lost season, but that doesn’t mean fans don’t still have something to root for.

Instead of fighting for playoff seeding, New England is jockeying for position atop the 2024 NFL Draft board. Consequently, there’s as much scoreboard-watching to do as there would be if the Patriots still had a chance of qualifying for the postseason.

With that in mind, we put together a Week 15 rooting guide for fans who want the Patriots to finish with a top-three pick in the draft. The list doesn’t include all 16 games — you’ll give yourself a headache figuring out tiebreaker math for multiple teams — but there’s a decent chunk of the Week 15 slate that’s relevant to New England.

First, here’s a look at the updated NFL draft order with four weeks remaining, via Tankathon:

1. Chicago Bears (via 1-12 Carolina Panthers; .520 strength of schedule)
2. New England Patriots (3-10; .525 SOS)
3. Arizona Cardinals (3-10; .557 SOS)
4. Washington Commanders (4-9; .529 SOS)
5. Chicago Bears (5-8; .466 SOS)
6. Las Vegas Raiders (5-8; .498 SOS)
7. New York Jets (5-8; .511 SOS)
8. New York Giants (5-8; .516 SOS)
9. Tennessee Titans (5-8; .520 SOS)
10. Los Angeles Chargers (5-8; .525 SOS)

Here are four things to keep in mind:

1. Strength of schedule is the first draft-order tiebreaker, with the team with the lower opponents’ winning percentage awarded the higher pick.
2. Tankathon’s SOS numbers include remaining scheduled opponents.
3. A divisional opponent’s record counts twice toward a team’s strength of schedule.
4. If the Patriots win fewer than two games the rest of the way, they’re guaranteed a top-four pick.

Now let’s get into the games.

Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions
Ideal result: Lions win
Why: It would hurt Denver’s record, thus lowering the Patriots’ SOS.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
Ideal result: Panthers win
Why: Carolina needs to win at least two more games for New England to have any chance of claiming the first overall pick.

Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns
Ideal result: Bears win
Why: The Patriots almost certainly won’t win an SOS tiebreaker against Chicago, so it’s in New England’s best interest for the Bears to win another game.

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders
Ideal result: Raiders win
Why: Same logic as the Bears-Browns game. Plus, the Patriots should want as few QB-needy teams atop the draft board as possible.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
Ideal result: Jets win
Why: The SOS implications are negligible, but the Jets are another QB-needy team whom New England should want to fall down the board.

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints
Ideal result: Giants win
Why: Same logic as the Jets-Dolphins game.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Ideal result: Titans win
Why: There aren’t any SOS implications, but the Patriots shoot root for all of the five-win teams to eventually reach at least six victories. The fewer tiebreakers, the better.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
Ideal result: Cardinals win
Why: Given the sizable SOS gap between them and the Cardinals, the Patriots probably would win a tiebreaker. However, with New England facing a winnable game against the Jets in the season finale, the Patriots might need Arizona to get a fourth victory.

Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Rams
Ideal result: Commanders win
Why: If Washington wins, and the Patriots beat the Chiefs on Sunday, New England would need to lose just two of its final three games to be guaranteed a top-three pick. That in turn could guarantee the Patriots a chance to draft quarterback Drake Maye, as there’s an increasing belief that Arizona will commit to Kyler Murray instead of drafting a QB.

Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills
Ideal result: Cowboys win
Why: Buffalo losing would put two additional losses on New England’s strength of schedule, just as the Titans’ Monday night win over the Dolphins did.

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks
Ideal result: Seahawks win
Why: It would hurt Philly’s record, thus lowering the Patriots’ SOS. A Seahawks win also would put one victory on Washington’s strength schedule, and two on Arizona’s — all of which would help New England.

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Got all that?

Ultimately, the most important game is New England’s Sunday afternoon matchup with Kansas City at Gillette Stadium. Because, when you strip away all the scoreboard-watching, one simple fact remains: The Patriots will land a top-three pick if they lose the rest of their games.

After hosting the Chiefs, New England will finish its season with games against the Broncos, Bills and Jets.