Analytics Paint Worsening Picture Of Patriots’ Hopes For Top Draft Pick

As recently as a week ago, ESPN’s analytics loved the chances of the Patriots landing a top-two pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The numbers also gave New England a decent shot at earning the No. 1 pick.

But last Sunday’s road win over the Denver Broncos changed a lot.

New England entered Week 16 with a firm hold on the second overall pick. But the victory in Denver, along with losses from the Arizona Cardinals and Washington Commanders, made the Patriots drop to the No. 4 spot.

Here’s what ESPN’s analytics department now says about New England’s chances of landing each of the top three picks:

First pick
Chicago Bears (via Carolina Panthers): 96%
Arizona Cardinals: 3%
Washington Commanders: less than 1%
New England Patriots: less than 1%

Top-two pick
Chicago Bears (via Carolina Panthers): 99%
Arizona Cardinals: 64%
Washington Commanders: 24%
New England Patriots: 12%
New York Giants: less than 1 %
Los Angeles Chargers: less than 1%

Top-three pick
Chicago Bears (via Carolina Panthers): more than 99%
Arizona Cardinals: 85%
Washington Commanders: 68%
New England Patriots: 43%
New York Giants: 4%
Los Angeles Chargers: less than 1%
Tennessee Titans: less than 1%

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It wouldn’t take much for the Patriots’ fortunes to reverse.

If New England loses to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday and the Cardinals beat the Philadelphia Eagles, the Patriots would move back into the top three. They also would move up to No. 2 if the Commanders somehow beat the San Francisco 49ers.

However, everything could come down to the season finale when the Patriots host the New York Jets at Gillette Stadium. If New England wins that game, it probably won’t finish inside the top four, let alone the top three.

Is it looking less likely that New England will land a top-two pick in the NFL draft? Yes, but there still is a lot that can happen over the last two weeks.