Cease is two years removed from a Cy Young-worthy season
The Red Sox in chief baseball officer Craig Breslow’s first winter at the helm have displayed a willingness to get creative. The question now, though, is whether they’re ready to package some top-flight prospects in a blockbuster trade for young, controllable starting pitching — like Dylan Cease.
The White Sox right-hander represents a potentially massive trade chip for Chicago. If the South Siders decide they’re unlikely to contend in 2024, then it might make sense to put Cease up for auction in an attempt to bolster a farm system that ranks 12th in baseball, according to Fangraphs.
The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal on Friday reported (at least) a pair of American League East teams are in the mix to potentially land Cease.
“The White Sox are weighing offers for Cease, and the Yankees and Orioles are among those to express ‘sincere’ interest,” Rosenthal wrote, citing “major-league sources briefed on the discussions.”
Rosenthal added other teams are “serious” about the 28-year-old. It sounds like Rosenthal can’t emphatically pin down the list of legitimate suitors but also mentioned “the Dodgers, Cardinals and Red Sox are among the teams possibly in the mix.”
As for what it might take to acquire Cease, who is “virtually certain” to be moved, per Rosenthal, The Athletic reporter says the White Sox are “open-minded” on their return and aren’t necessarily looking for pitchers ready to contribute at the major leagues. That seemingly would bode well for the Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles or any other team looking to land him. Unless a team was dealing from a true surplus of starting pitching depth, it almost seems counterproductive for a contender to trade a valuable big league pitcher in order to get another arm, even if that arm (in this case, Cease) represents an upgrade.
The problem for a team like the Red Sox is it’s not like they have far and away the best farm system of the teams involved. According to Fangraphs, they have the No. 2 system, which is great. Other suitors like the Dodgers (No. 6) and Orioles (No. 8) have plenty of prospects to move, and even the Cardinals and Yankees — with bottom-half farm systems — have enough talented young players who have graduated from the minor leagues that they could make compelling deals.
As Rosenthal notes, “The Red Sox, like the Dodgers, possess a top-five system and are seeking a top-of-the-rotation starter.” He also mentions other teams have already pivoted away from Cease because they believed the price was too high.
Frankly, if teams are going to get the 2023 version of Cease, that might prove to be true. He was a workhorse, taking the ball 32 times, but he endured the worst full season of his career. Cease went 7-9 with a 4.58 ERA, allowing 19 home runs while also walking four batters per nine innings. His 3.72 FIP does suggest some bad luck, which is something reinforced by the notion he was one of the best pitchers in baseball in 2022. He came in second in American League Cy Young Award voting after going 14-8 with a 2.20 ERA while striking out 11 per nine innings. In 2021, he led the American League in strikeouts per nine innings.
So, there’s definitely some intriguing talent there, especially if someone can help him improve his command. Cease led the league in wild pitches in 2021 and led the majors last seson. He’s also twice led the league in walks. That he’s also under contract through 2025 is also a major selling point, so it won’t be surprising at all if the White Sox get a haul for him, especially considering the teams still in the mix.