Bills Vs. Jaguars Pick: Predictions For Week 3 ‘Monday Night Football’

The NFL’s “Monday Night Football” doubleheader returns to cap off Week 3, and the opener features the Buffalo Bills hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars.

After a wild Sunday in which a handful of large underdogs won outright, the Bills are hoping to avoid a similar trip-up. If they can do that, and do so in a relatively convincing fashion, it could go a long way in solidifying Josh Allen and company as the NFL’s top team.

The Jaguars, on the other hand, might be in the position of needing to save their season. While they’d still be alive in the mediocre AFC South even at 0-3, Jacksonville surely will find itself in a massive hole if it starts the season with three straight defeats. For the Jags to get right, they need more out of quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The 2021 No. 1 overall pick completed just 51% of his passes in the first two weeks of the season, and he was sacked seven times in the process. The Bills did a nice job of getting to the quarterback in their first two games (six total sacks) despite blitzing just over 12% of the time.

The Buffalo offense, meanwhile, has been extremely efficient. Allen’s 124.6 passer rating leads the NFL, with the QB completing nearly 74% of his passes with three touchdowns and no interceptions. He also continues to be a threat on the ground with 41 rushing yards and a pair of running scores through two weeks. That ground game has been especially impressive on the whole with the Bills averaging 119 rushing yards per game through two weeks, complementing not only the passing attack but a stout defense that entered the week seventh in DVOA.

Jacksonville Jaguars at (-5.5) Buffalo Bills, 7:30 p.m. ET
Total: 45.5
Weather: partly cloudy, high 60s, light breeze
TV: ESPN

PICK: UNDER 45.5
There’s no shortage of offensive talent in this game, but let’s start with the Jaguars’ issues. The advanced numbers point to success. The offense ranks 11th in DVOA, sandwiched in between the Jets and Lions. Jacksonville even is among the top half of the league in yards per play. Yet, through two weeks, they had 30 points total to show for it all. But that’s kind of been Jacksonville’s MO in the Doug Pederson era. The numbers always look better than the results. That points to a lack of execution, something that probably isn’t going to magically fix itself under the lights in Orchard Park against a Bills defense that ranks seventh by DVOA and sixth by EPA per play allowed. We saw just last week the sorts of struggles Jacksonville’s offense could have against an elite defense, mustering just 13 points against a Cleveland defense that turned around and lost to the lowly Giants.

The Buffalo offense is also talented, but it also feels like that unit is in its own ramp-up period. The receiver group hasn’t really gelled yet with Allen, and it may never be one of the NFL’s best given the relative lack of high-end talent. But it’s not like the Bills need to be the 2007 Patriots, either. Buffalo’s run game, buoyed by bruising back James Cook, has shown real improvement. If that continues, they’ll probably be looking at longer, more sustained drives that keep the clock moving. The Bills only had six plays of 20 yards or more in the first two weeks this season.

Add it all up, and this has the makings of a Monday night rock fight.