NFL Week 1 Picks: ATS Predictions For All 16 Games On Opening Slate

Congratulations to us all, as we have successfully navigated another spring and summer without football to get us all the way back to Week 1 of the NFL season.

With the return of pigskin comes the return of weekly against-the-spread picks, and we are ready for our best season yet.

Let’s just get right into it, shall we?

THURSDAY, SEPT. 5

Baltimore Ravens at (-3) Kansas City Chiefs, 8:20 p.m. ET

Ravens. The Ravens might struggle with some turnover at points this season, especially on defense, but it’s hard to pass up the points in a one-game revenge spot. Potentially weird take, but this feels like the 2018 season opener when an ascending Chiefs team (led by Alex Smith) went into New England and knocked off the Patriots.

FRIDAY, SEPT. 6

Green Bay Packers vs. (-2) Philadelphia Eagles, 8:20 p.m. (in Sao Paolo, Brazil)

Eagles. Initially was leaning Green Bay in this week’s episode of “The Spread,” but that number is so short, and if either of these teams has a major question that still needs answering, it’s the Packers’ defensive issues. The vibes are strong with Jeff Hafley calling the shots, and Xavier McKinney might be the most underrated offseason signing. However, the Eagles have so much firepower, and until you see it from the Green Bay defense, that’s hard to expect a major effort here.

SUNDAY, SEPT. 8

Jacksonville Jaguars at (-3.5) Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.

Dolphins. Miami is just a better team, and that’s a pretty short number for a better team that is so powerful offensively that it could run away and hide. Don’t sleep on the major home-field advantage Miami has with temperatures potentially getting up to 90 on Sunday.

Pittsburgh Steelers at (-3) Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m.

Steelers. This is one of the toughest games on the board. If Atlanta does its thing and looks like the team it could be, then this will be a laugher. What feels more likely, though, is that it takes some time for Kirk Cousins to get acclimated, especially after coming off his Achilles injury, and it doesn’t look great right away. If that’s the case, let’s just grab the points with the institutional foundation that comes with Mike Tomlin.

(-1.5) Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants, 1 p.m.

Vikings. The Giants are pretty bad!

Carolina Panthers at (-4) New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m.

Panthers. One potential strategy for the 2024 NFL season: If it’s an NFC South game, and the spread is more than a field goal, blindly take the points. They might all kind of stink.

New England Patriots at (-8) Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m.

Patriots. New England is going to be bad, of course — even the owner knows as much. But the Bengals have a weird early-season trend in the Joe Burrow era, where they’re just 1-3 in Week 1. That includes some very unsightly losses. There are still some questions about the defense, especially when it comes to stopping the run, which might be the only thing the Patriots can do halfway decent on offense this season.

Tennessee Titans at (-4) Chicago Bears, 1 p.m.

Titans. Unsurprisingly, the history of No. 1 picks in their debut isn’t impressive. Granted, Caleb Williams is coming into a nice situation, but don’t sleep on the Titans’ improvements. The offense should be better under Brian Callahan — remember Jake Browning? — and the secondary is better, which is certainly needed against the Bears’ receiving corps.

Arizona Cardinals at (-6.5) Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m.

Bills. Buffalo probably wants to make life as easy as possible for Josh Allen, and that might start with a dedication to the running game. If that’s the case, this could be a very good matchup for the Bills against a Cardinals defense that got run all over last season.

(-3) Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m.

Colts. At the risk of blindly following trends, this Week 1 tidbit feels extremely relevant here: Divisional home underdogs are 22-7 against the spread in Week 1 since 2010. The public doesn’t seem to mind, moving this spread up to the full field goal, but that makes grabbing the points even more attractive.

Las Vegas Raiders at (-3) Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05 p.m.

Chargers. LA is impossible to read at this point, but if you take away Davante Adams, the Raiders might have the least talented offense in the NFL — and it’s not like Adams made a huge impact in spite of that last season, either. Hard to see where the points come from for Vegas.

Washington Commanders at (-3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4:25 p.m.

Commanders. Washington hiring Dan Quinn doesn’t exactly inspire a ton of confidence in Jayden Daniels’ development track. That being said, for one week, the defensive-minded Quinn should scheme up something against a Tampa Bay offense that is onto life without Dave Canales.

Denver Broncos at (-6) Seattle Seahawks, 4:25 p.m.

Seahawks. It’s kind of crazy how much Bo Nix hype is out there, right? Going back and looking at his NFL draft profile, it’s noted he threw 30% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage last season. That’s insane. The Denver defense has major question marks, and if the Broncos fall behind, can a Nix-led offense really keep pace?

Dallas Cowboys at (-2.5) Cleveland Browns, 4:25 p.m.

Cowboys. Another really tough call. Ultimately, this decision comes down to the quarterbacks, and MVP hopeful Dak Prescott vs. potentially washed Deshaun Watson gives Dallas a major advantage.

Los Angeles Rams at (-3.5) Detroit Lions, 8:20 p.m.

Rams. Another major revenge game spot. On top of that, the Rams are supposedly healthy, which might be the only time all season we can say that. LA at full strength matches up with anyone.

MONDAY, SEPT. 9

New York Jets at (-4.5) San Francisco 49ers, 8:20 p.m.

Jets. It’s probably going to take a while for Aaron Rodgers to regain his footing coming back from his Achilles injury at age 40. That being said, the Jets won seven games last season with a trio of suck under center. There’s so much talent everywhere else that Rodgers just needs to be pedestrian to keep the Jets in every game, which he should be capable of doing here to keep it inside the number.