NFL Week 4 Picks: Analysis, Best Bets For Top Matchups

Week 4 in the NFL is already here, and when you’re tasked with trying to make picks every week, it’s more difficult than most people realize.

Take last week for example. Underdogs of 5.5 points or more went 5-1 against the spread. Through three weeks, those dogs of nearly a touchdown were 14-2 ATS, and that run continued into Week 4 where the New York Giants covered as 5.5-point underdogs despite a 20-15 loss to the Dallas Cowboys (who might have saved their season). The G-Men narrowly became the 11th such underdog to win outright; as it stands, dogs of 5.5 or more are now 10-5 straight-up.

Talk about landmines.

However, NESN.com’s Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle must continue to step in front of that train to bring viewers, listeners and readers their picks every week on “The Spread,” NESN’s sports betting podcast.

Below are their three-, two- and one-unit picks for Week 4 of the NFL season.

What do the units represent? More or less nothing, outside of an approximate reflection of the guys’ opinions on their respective games.

THREE-UNIT PICKS

Ricky: Colts (+1.5) vs. Steelers

Ricky’s take: “I like Indianapolis’ offensive line. I still think they’re among the best in the league. … I think you saw a little bit of burst from Jonathan Taylor last week. I think what they do well offensively can neutralize Pittsburgh’s defense a little bit, and I think Pittsburgh’s offense leaves a lot to be desired.”

Mike: Bengals (-4.5) at Panthers

Mike’s take: This game opened at 7 and is already down to 4.5. It feels far more like a 7-point game than a 4.5-point game. … I’m 100% ready to discount everything that happened in the Panthers’ game last week. I think that’s a fake game because of the Raiders (being bad). … I think the bigger issue is (Carolina) can’t stop the Bengals, and as bad as (Cincinnati) has looked defensively, offensively, they continue to get better.

TWO-UNIT PICKS

Ricky: Bears (-2.5) vs. Rams

Ricky’s take: To me, this feels like maybe this is the spot for the Caleb Williams breakout game. I think that last week’s win for the Rams felt like an emptying of the tank. … That does nothing to heal their injuries in the receiver room, along the offensive line, on the defense — every facet of their team is banged up right now.

Mike: Cardinals (-3.5) vs. Commanders

Mike’s take: “The Cardinals might be good. … They’re 1-2, but the losses came to Buffalo and Detroit. … I think Jayden Daniels is a dude, Dan Quinn I do like, but I just feel like this is a major letdown spot (for Washington). Short week, feeling real good coming off that win, and now you have to do it with less prep, you have this roller coaster thing of a rookie quarterback with ups and downs. It wouldn’t be surprising if we saw a dip coming.”

ONE-UNIT PICKS

Ricky: Broncos at Jets UNDER 38.5

Ricky’s take: “This is literally my line of thinking with this game: I think it’s gonna look exactly like the Jets-Patriots game from last week. … Initially, I was looking to lean Jets, but I don’t love to lay more than a touchdown (with the Jets), so that’s where I started looking a the total. It’s a low total, but if I’m getting minimal offensive production from the Broncos, I feel good about it.”

Mike: Saints at Falcons UNDER 42.5

Mike’s take: “I think both of these defenses are going to key off on some busted offensive lines, and I think last week for the Saints kind of went a long way in maybe we should tap the brakes on the (Klint) Kubiak thing, at least for a week. Now they have to go on the road, and for Atlanta, I still don’t totally believe in the offense, and outside of the scripted stuff last week, I don’t have a whole lot of reason to believe they’ll move up and down the field.”

To hear the guys’ full breakdown of their NFL Week 4 picks and to also get caught up on all their hijinks, be sure to download “The Spread” podcast on Spotify or wherever else you get your podcasts.