Red Sox Have Surprising World Series Odds Despite Playoff Uncertainty

With six days remaining in the MLB regular season, anything can happen in the American League. Five of the AL’s six playoff spots are still up for grabs, and four teams are separated by just one game in the Wild Card standings.

The Boston Red Sox are one of them, clinging to a one-game lead over the Cleveland Guardians and Houston Astros for the second Wild Card spot. Clinching a postseason berth won’t be easy for the Red Sox, who close out the regular season with back-to-back series against the first-place Toronto Blue Jays and Detroit Tigers.

Despite its precarious position and difficult schedule, Baseball-Reference remains surprisingly bullish on Boston. Entering play on Tuesday, the site’s playoff model gives the Red Sox a 94.9% chance of making the postseason.

Even more surprising, however, is the site’s confidence in Boston going all the way. The Red Sox have the fifth-best World Series odds at 7.7%, better than several teams with better records who have already clinched playoff spots, including the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres.

That’s because Baseball-Reference’s model looks at teams’ last 100 games rather than their overall records. That benefits Boston, which is 58-42 over its last 100 games — the third-best record in baseball during that span behind only the Blue Jays (64-39) and the Milwaukee Brewers (68-34).

However, 71 of those games included Roman Anthony, who won’t be available for the start of the postseason due to an oblique injury. The Red Sox have been a different team without him, going 41-44 when he’s not in the lineup.

Accordingly, Baseball-Reference may be overestimating Boston’s chances here. The Red Sox have struggled offensively without Anthony and are just 7-9 since he went down, limping to the finish line.

Anything can happen in October, but Boston needs to get there first.