Did Craig Breslow’s Bold Rafael Devers Prediction Come True For Red Sox?

One of the biggest moments of the Boston Red Sox’s 2025 campaign happened about midway through the season. Just hours after sweeping the New York Yankees at Fenway Park on June 15, the Red Sox shockingly traded their best hitter, Rafael Devers, to the San Francisco Giants for two pitchers and two prospects.

The move was incredibly bold and controversial, with many fans comparing it to Boston’s ill-fated Mookie Betts trade five years earlier.

The following day, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow made an equally bold prediction about the Red Sox’s future while discussing the blockbuster trade.

“I do think there’s a real chance that at the end of the season, we’re looking back and we’ve won more games than we otherwise would’ve,” Breslow said.

At the time, that seemed like wishful thinking. After winning seven of its final eight games with Devers, Boston proceeded to lose seven of its first 10 games without him.

Despite that initial slump, the Red Sox ultimately proved Breslow correct. They were 37-36 with Devers (.507 winning percentage) and 52-37 (.584 — fifth-best in baseball) without him (not including the postseason), surging to their first playoff berth since 2021.

However, it’s worth noting that Boston’s turnaround had almost nothing to do with the Devers trade, and arguably happened in spite of it.

Rookie outfielder Roman Anthony emerged as one of the best players in baseball a few weeks after the trade and picked up the slack in Devers’ absence before going down with an oblique injury in September. Surprisingly, the Red Sox averaged more runs per game without Devers (4.87) than with him (4.84) despite hitting for less power, although the warmer weather likely played a role in that.

Boston’s pitching also took off, but not because of Jordan Hicks or Kyle Harrison — the two arms acquired in the Devers deal. They combined for -0.8 WAR and a 6.16 ERA in just 30 2/3 innings for the Red Sox, while Devers contributed 1.8 WAR for the Giants.

Instead, the staff improved because of internal improvements elsewhere. Lucas Giolito rounded into form after a slow start, Brayan Bello broke out and the bullpen became unhittable. Boston went from 18th in ERA before the trade (3.96) to second in ERA (3.47) afterwards, and not because the defense improved without Devers (he didn’t play the field at all this year before the trade).

The team also benefited from better luck in one-run games in the second half, regressing to the mean after a remarkably poor start in that department. After going 6-17 in one-run games to begin the season, they went 17-10 the rest of the way.

The Red Sox were already trending up when Devers was dealt, and that rise continued throughout much of the summer. While they technically had a better record without Devers than with him, that had more to do with the team’s overall trajectory and the performance of other players rather than the trade itself.